Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Turning points
Price has gone too high and we have no other choice then change the count. It looks like the best way to count price from 1.2968 is a WXY correction. The reason I'm counting this as such is because wave a of Y is clearly in 3 waves. Common targets for Y waves are the 76.8% and 100% extentions of wave W. 1.3483 is the 261.8% extention of wave a of Y, which could also be a turning point. Best to be carefull if you want to try a short trade, since there still is a lot of momentum to the upside.
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Jeremy,
ReplyDeleteI have one question on the counting above.
The wave X is made of an a-b-c with an internal structure of 3-3-5 despite that it doesn't have the shape of a flat.
What I have in mind is a possible count as for a double three where wave A on your picture is W, wave B is X and we then count a Y as a triangle. It then follows the rally which would fit into the larger picture only if we accept that the move from 1.2960 is the first wave of a larger impulsive move. What puzzles me about my proposed counting is that wave a of the triangle (which is C of X on your picture) looks as a 5 instead of a 3.
I realize that I do not have a clear solution but just trying to build a rationale for one.
Thanks,
Catalin
Hi Catalin,
ReplyDeleteYou are abosolutly correct that wave Y can be a triangle. It is a valid count for sure. I don't agree however that the count from 1.2966 has to be part of a bigger impulsive wave. I count price from 1.2966 to 1.3459 as corrective, but i have seen it counted as an impulsive wave. So it can be a wave A, W or 1 (depending on how you count it) followed by a corrective wave to form a wave B, X or 2. As for the wave a of the triangle, zoom into a smaller timeframe and you can count it as a 3 wave move. I counted as a wave C of X but it should be Y of X. But for my count that doens't really matter that much as i count it as a 3 wave move ( abc or wxy )
Jeremy
Jeremy,
ReplyDeletePoint taken. You are right. That wave can also be seen in 3 waves.
Your scenario appear to be more clear than my proposal that includes a triangle.
We shall now expect that wave Y comes almost to equality in length to W.
It looks like it had difficulties going through 1.3457 which is the 0.618 projection of W through X.
Catalin
Do I see it well?
ReplyDeleteWave 5 ending at 1.3467 (failed top) and an impulse coming down from there.
1.3474 is also the 38.2% retracement of the last leg down from 1.3785, coming to a kind of convergence with the 0.618 projection of W through X
Hi there,
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry but i don't see the failed top (=truncated 5th?). To me it looks more like a regular top at 1.3497. Price following the top is corrective, but this could mean a wave B on higher level has started. Also it is not the 38.2% retracement, it's the 61.8% retracement you are talking about i believe. But yes, that's a good resistance level, together with the 61.8% of W and the 261.8% extention of A of Y.
Friendly greetings,
Jeremy
Hi Jeremy,
ReplyDeleteWhenever I want to see something I get such 'truncated 5th' or any other patterns which will make up what I was looking for.
That is why I need to cool down from 'an emotional counting' by simply looking to how other count.
It is so much worth to me following your counting. Thanks for sharing it and replying to my 'strange stuff'.
Regards,
Catalin
It's always good to keep an eye open for all the valid counts possible, bearish and bullish. It's also good to look at different timeframes so you know where price is on the different levels.
ReplyDeleteIf you have any questions i'm always happy to help.
Thanks, Jeremy!
ReplyDelete