Tuesday, August 31, 2010

A storm is coming

There's a possibility that eur/usd is ready to fall after what looks like a 5 wave decline followed by a zigzag correction. But this would require price to fall hard immediatly. Above the red line wave ii isn't finished yet.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Fall now or Fall later

If the channel breaks we should get some acceleration of the downtrend in the form of wave iii. However this is NFP week so slow sideways action is possible, maybe wave ii will finish later on this week and the NFP news event will cause the wave iii of 3...

Friday, August 27, 2010

Cable Guy

Here are 2 ways to look at Gbp/Usd. Bullish case would be a wave c ( or y ) and the bearish case ( in blue ) would be a very big wave 3. i of 1 ( in blue ) is a bit hard to count as impulsive or diagonal so that's why i keep it as a alternative. Note the nice channeling and fibonacci levels that seem to work pretty well here.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Close but no cigar

Wave 4 has almost overlapped with wave 1, but the count is still valid. However, i'm starting to look for alternatives. The first alternative count has wave (i) and possibly wave (ii) finished, where wave (iii) of 3 will start anytime soon. A less probable count is a finished A-B-C.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

One more push lower

Wave iv did take more time like i suspected, wave v should take price lower to the 1.2482 - 1.2520 zone where there's former low support (July 5th and July 12th). After this there should be some kind of a relief rally to possibly offer another big selling opportunity.

On Track

Price went lower as expected and reversed sharply in the form of wave iv. There's a little problem with this wave iv because it looks a lot like wave ii, usually one of the two is sharp while the other takes more time. So i do not exclude wave iv taking more time. Pricewise, wave iv wont go much higher because it's near the previous wave 4 high and it's at the 38.2% FIB retracement of wave iii. As to where this fits into the bigger picture, I think we are finishing wave i of 3. I'll post this possibility in one of my next posts.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Stuck in the middle right now

The alternate count from last post becomes nearly impossible. So i am now focusing on bearish counts. This one looks like the most probable. Green wave 5 could extend, but that just pure speculation based on the fact that we're in a bigger wave 3 and we should expect surprises to the downside. If it doesn't, we could get another 3 wave correction, where price has to stay below blue ii's high. We have to wait and see for the correct count, but the main direction is pretty certain, down.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Here We Go

The low was broken and it is very possible that wave 3 has started. The only alternative is an expanded flat wave B. For this to be true 1.2791 has to be broken (wave 1 low). For now i'm starting to sell rallies.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Strange but possible

I'm sticking with this count even if it looks a bit strange. There are a lot of possibilities to count this, wait for the waves to clear up for more certainty. There's a nice head and shoulders pattern, which should lead price higher into a wave 2 top.

Wednesday, August 18, 2010


Here's an update to Gbp/Usd. I'm keeping a close eye on it to determine where Eur/Usd is in its wave count. After completing wave 4 there are 5 waves down possibly finishing wave 5. This would mean we're in a correction mode higher, where wave A is close to (or has allready) completing. Again I'm not buying this, i don't want to be short the US Dollar anywhere. There are a couple of alternative counts like these 5 waves since the wave 4 top being wave 1 of 5. Another alternative is wave 3 is wave i, wave 4 is ii and the 5 waves down are another wave 1. Watch 1.5701, if broken the alteratives will be invalidated. But price could turn south anytime in a violant way.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

A little more patience

The triangle count got invalidated, wave C went above wave A's high. There's still a possibility for a complex correction wave 4 (possibly not complete). Otherwise the alternative count will come into play, where there are allready 5 waves complete and we're now in wave B of the correction. We'll have to wait and see for more clarity.

Monday, August 16, 2010


Like Eur/Usd, this pair looks to be in the same situation, but there's less space to finish wave 4.

2 possibilities

The problem is the decline from 1.2900 to 1.2730. It's unclear if it's 3 or 5 waves. So here are 2 charts with the possibilities.

5 waves : possible end of wave 5 or getting ready to explode lower

3 waves : wave 4 expanded contracting triangle

Friday, August 13, 2010

It's just the start

Here's the update to the count on the 15 min chart. Looks like lower prices to come. The alternate count is more bearish.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Double D

No, not that double D, but Deflation and Dollar. Here's a usd/chf (updated) count which shows this pair is ready to explode higher. Price has bounced on the green trendline and has touched the 76.4% FIB retracement. Deflation could certainly cause a rush to the us dollar.

To Beat a Bear, You Have To Be a Bear

Wave ii was a small wave, but many times during a 3th wave on a bigger scale, waves 2 can be small like this. It now appears that wave 3 is complete (or close to it). Look for a wave 4 to bring us back at another shorting opportunity. The alternative count is very possible aswell, since this is a 3th wave on multiple scales, a very bearish counts stand good chances of coming true.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Perfect Storm

A perfect storm has a lot of big waves and it sure looks like we're just ahead of a couple of huge ones. A first 5 waves down has allready completed and it looks like a second 5 waves is now complete aswell. Wait for a pullback for another shorting opportunity.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Euro Has Topped

With 1.3202 broken, 1.3334 now seems to be the top i was looking for. Any descent rally should be should sold with a stop at (or just above) 1.3334. We probably have 5 waves finished from the top, so a 3 wave correction will offer a nice shorting opportunity.

Monday, August 9, 2010


1.3202 is key level for this count. Don't forget the FOMC event tomorrow, it could lead to big moves. Not only the event itself but the expectation of the news could be a marketmover. It should get interesting after that with lots of volatility. US Dollar looks ready to turn higher.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Clearing up

My suspicion was correct, there were 3 waves and we made another high. Things seem to be clearing up. The 100% FIB extention of the first ABC is target for the second ABC, this would complete a complex double three correction. This type of behaviour is common and when we zoom into the smaller timeframe we can clearly see we're close to the end of 5 waves of C.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Finished or not?

With the previous count invalidated, this is the next best option. Price following the top, appears to be in 3 waves. This can mean 2 things. Either it wasn't the top and we go a little bit higher, or there was a top and we have started a wave B on a bigger scale. We should know more about the direction after tomorrows NFP numbers.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Finding a top

Price is getting really close to the point of invalidation. And with one more small wave to go, this cannot be a big wave.