Friday, April 30, 2010

Is there finally a bottom?

Wave 5 went just a little lower, but not enough to change the count. If the low is in we are now correcting higher in 3 waves. We are only in the early stage of this correction, so expect price to go higher over the next couple of weeks.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Time to be a contrerian?

There's a possibility that wave 5 has ended in the form of an ending diagonal. Another possibility is that small wave 3 is still forming, but this cannot be longer than small wave 1, so it will have to end soon.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Time to play the waiting game

Wave B went pretty low, which makes me think about the ending diagonal again. The problem is that price after the wave 4 high can be counted as 3 waves or 5 waves. Because this isn't very clear i'm looking to a bigger timeframe and keep both possibilities as an option. That's the reason i have us in either wave C going up or looking for one more low and an ending diagonal (wave 5 will have to be smaller then wave 3). Above 1.3690 would eliminate the ending diagonal count, below 1.32 wave B wouldn't be finished or an ending diagonal is forming if price went high enough to make a small wave 4 (of wave 5). If price just drops like a rock to new lows i'll have to review my count.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Monday, April 19, 2010

Still correcting

Eur/Usd is finishing (or has allready finished) 3 waves since topping around 1.3690. I'm counting this as a wave A of a bigger 3 wave pattern. The bigger 3 waves would be wave B (circle). There is still the possibility of an ending diagonal forming, but this would require wave B to finised much lower, it will then be counted as wave 3 of the ending diagonal.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Time for a retest

USD/JPY was in a complex decline which seems finished. The break of the falling trendline has been broken and i'm now looking for a retest before price goes higher. It's possible to count a diagonal, but i prefer the complex correction for now.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Wednesday, April 14, 2010


I'm looking for a wave 4 triangle to unfold, wave C must end above the low of wave A. If wave C goes below, it will be the end of wave C of 4 and wave 5 will start.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Trap or new direction?

We didn't go below the key level as indicated in the previous post. This means that wave 2 of the ending diagonal wasn't finished yet. Another possibility is that we are not in an ending diagonal but the bottom from the 1.5140 - 1.3266 decline is in allready. This would mean we are correcting higher and instead of looking for a wave 3, we would be looking for a wave B to begin soon.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Diagonal confirmation?

Price needs to break the black line around 1.3265 and end wave iii after doing so. 1.3170 ( 1st abc = 2nd abc ) looks like a good price level for wave iii to end and wave iv to start. Wave iv has to overlap with wave i since we are in an ending diagonal.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010


Looks like wave 3 of the ending diagonal is under way. Expect a small wave b of 3 bounce soon. I'm looking for an end of this diagonal around the 1.30 price level.

Friday, April 2, 2010

Running out of bearish options

The red line was broken yesterday, so the previous count in now invalid. I propose this last bearish count in the form of an ending diagonal, where wave 3 will start now or anytime soon. If the wave 4 high is broken, i will be forced to label the low of 1.3266 as the end of wave 5. If that's the case, we are now building the correction of the 5 waves down on the daily chart.

Thursday, April 1, 2010

Still valid

Looks like the wave 5 down was wave c of B of ii. We are pushing the limits of where price can go before the count is invalidated. But we are still under the red line, so i'm still expecting a serious drop in price.