Sunday, April 22, 2012

Eur/Usd : Rally is corrective

In the last post i was looking for a wave C. Price did decline as expected, but the size of this wave C was only 61.8% of wave A, probably due to the support zone around 1.3000. This is actually common for flat corrections. The reason i expected a bigger wave C is because the bigger pattern indicates that the trend is down and in this case the bigger waves happen in the direction of the trend. For this same reason i am now looking at this rally as complete. Alternative is for another high. Above 1.3485 means that the count is in danger of being wrong, but it can since the rally is a wave B.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Eur/Usd : Ready to resume downtrend

People who aren't used to coming to this blog and have only a little knowledge about elliott wave might find all the wxy labels confusion, don't worry they're called complex (double threes) for a reason. It's not so hard to understand, instead of an abc where the last wave, wave c, is a 5 wave move, a wxy has the last move, wave y, as a 3 wave move, but it's a lot harder to find them and there are a lot more options for the correction to evolve into something else. This is also why i have the last wave on the chart, the wave we are in currently, as an abc flat. This implies that the decline will be impulsive and any sign of an impulsive move from the top even on small timeframes could be considered as a start of wave c. On the other hand, if this decline will be a wave y, even on the smaller timeframes, you will find a lot of overlapping corrective waves. We'll have to wait and see how the market will play it out. The important thing is that this latest rally, be it wave b or x seems finished ( unless this is the first leg of b/x ) and price seems ready to continue the downtrend.