Thursday, November 22, 2012

Eur/Usd : Rally over?

A first possibilty for the countertrend rally to end is around this level. The correction can still transform into a bigger corrective wave.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

SP500 : Watch the trendline

In the last post i showed a possible ending diagonal, where a small thrust above the upper trendline was needed after which price had to reverse. This is exactly what happened and i now believe chances are really high that SP500 has put in a top that will not be retested for a very long time.

On the 4 hour chart, counting is a little less certain. One thing is clear, price action from the top is corrective. This has made me change the top at 1474 to an X wave top, which puts price in the beginning of wave Y. We will have to wait and let price decide if price action from 1435 is corrective or impulsive. For the impulsive count, price cannot go above the red line at 1407. 
The corrective count allows for a bigger corrective rally.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Eur/Usd : Corrective wave down

From the 1.3171 top i count the decline as a corrective wave, a complex double three. A target for the end of this corrective wave comes around 1.2770, with 2 nice 100% fibonacci extention levels around this level. After this, price action will be important for the bearish count. The rally has to be corrective and should stay under 1.3171 ( unless the rally is an expanded wave B ). It's also possible that countertrend rallies will get small both in time and price as the downtrend will accelerate.