Saturday, October 29, 2011

Xau/Usd : Corrective wave ending

The exact count isn't very clear, but 1 thing is certain, the rally is corrective. There's a nice resistance zone around 1.770$ where from the low there would be 2 equal legs. This is also the 61.8 fibonacci retracement level.

Eur/Usd : A little higher

Things seem to be clearing up on the shorter timeframes. As i said in the previous post, there was a possibility for another leg higher on the news. I still believe this will be negative eventually. The reason for this is that the rally is corrective. Alternatives are that this 3 wave rally is part of a bigger corrective wave, so a bigger complex double three, a flat and a triangle are still possible.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Aud/Usd : Correction over?

In the last audusd post i was looking for a small rally. This rally has grown bigger than i expected, but looks to be finished now. The alternative is that wave X isn't complete yet and another leg higher will follow.

Eur/Usd : Topping

The markets are all awaiting what will be decided by the EU leaders, but it seems the reaction could be negative. Even if there's a initial rally and there's another leg higher, the result will be euro negative.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Eur/Usd : Corrective wave

The higher timeframe has 3 valid possibilities as shown in the last post, so now i'm focusing on the smaller timeframe. From the bottom we can see 7 legs. For now this is corrective unless there's another leg higher. The first part of the rally seems corrective to me. Some people may count this entire rally as an impulsive wave, but that requires a wave 2 as an expanded flat, which is rare. I prefer to count the first part as a corrective complex double three also known as a WXY corrective wave. The 2nd part fits better as a zigzag, the correct labeling for a zigzag is ABC. It is possible that this zigzag isn't done yet since wave C is still smaller than wave A, usually in zigzags A and C are equal in size. The question is now where this fits into the bigger timeframe count. For this we can only wait for more price action.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Eur/Usd : 3 possibilities, 3 problems

I can see 3 valid possibilities at the moment:

1: Complex double three

This is the main count i've been following for a while now. Problem : Wave (X) is very small when compared to the size of the internal waves of wave (W).

2: Triangle wave X

This is probably the count Elliott Wave International has, not sure but just a guess from the free information they gave on their website. Problem : wave E of the triangle is very very small. Beside that, it's actually a nice count and wave W and Y are equal.

3: Complex double three with a large wave Y

Like count 1 but with larger wave Y. Problem : Big difference between size of wave W and Y

Friday, October 7, 2011

Eur/Usd : Rally complete?

The rally survived both the ECB event and the NFP event. Now at the end of the trading week the fitch downgrades seem to have triggered a new downtrend. There is a chance of this rally only being the first part of the rally. In this case the rally could resume at lower levels. But keep in mind that on the daily chart the trend seems very bearish.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Eur/Usd : Pre ECB rally

The count appears to be on track and with J.C. Trichets last appearance as head of the central bank, it looks like the ECB event tomorrow could have a negative effect on the euro, there are people who think a rate cut is coming. This would certainly trigger a new leg lower. But before that i believe price will rally into the event.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Aud/Usd : Small rally

In the last post for aud/usd i mentioned that the countertrend rally could be small and retest the trendline. This has happened and bears are now in control. Any rally should be small.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Xau/Usd : 1726 resistance level

Since the last update price has continued to rally as expected. The rally is corrective and could end around 1726$. At this level we find the 50% fibonacci retracement level from the 1920$ - 1532$ decline and this is where there would be 2 equal legs from the bottom. The alternative is that price is in a triangle wave B.

Eur/Usd : Bearish count

It is looking more and more like the bearish alternative was the correct count. This means that wave (X) was really small and the decline is very powerfull. Look for 1.3115 to offer some support, but support shouldn't hold very long.