Friday, October 29, 2010

1.60 1.50 1.40?

There are a couple of good possibilities at this point. Here's is the one i've been following for a while now. Wave B of Y ready or may need one more high. After this price should go down to around 1.3618. Another possibility is a big triangle where we are now in wave D ( or even have finished wave D and E allready ). And another count is more bullish, where wave A of X is wave 1 and it is followed by an expanded flat. Notice that the 2 alternatives proposed suggest a new high for eur/usd, where the count i'm following has a top in allready.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Big Double Three

I replaced the triangle idea because price went too high. I now count it as a double three ( abcxabc ), forming wave A of Y. I expect price to form a wave B of Y top soon and then start the wave C of Y to eventually go to 1.3618 ( 100% fib ext. of W ).

Triangle X

Price did break out of the triangle, but did so in 3 waves. That's is why I am now counting us in wave ( second ) c of Y ( Y=abcxabc ). Its is not sure if wave b finished allready, it could even pop out of the channel. If it does it is cause for concern, but as long as 1.3830 doesn't get broken I am looking for this count to come true.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Triangle in a channel

There are a few possibilities at the moment for Eur/Usd. Here is just one of them. The reason i picked this count is because of the triangle. There's a small wave (circled on the chart) that doesn't look like it can be counted as 5 waves, it counts better as a corrective wave which would mean it's part of a bigger correction, a triangle. Maybe this is a wave X and 1-2-3 = a-b-c (W) or maybe it should be counted as an impulsive wave anyway, who knows? We'll have to wait and see, but there's a nice channel down and a contracting price range setting up for a breakout, we will know more when this breakout occurs.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Wave C Down

The new wave B top count was the correct one. Price following the top should be a wave C, where we have wave 1-2-i finished. Minimum target would be 1.3693 ( wave A low ), another target 1.3337 ( 161.8% fib ext of A ). There's a possibility that this 1-2-i is actually an a-b-c. If this is true, it is possible that we are in a wave Y instead of C. The difference is that if we're in a wave Y, price can go higher than 1.3981, where if this is a 1-2-i, price cannot exceed this level. Yet another possibility is that we are in a giant triangle, which would be a wave X in the pattern from the 1.1875, but I would keep this as a second alternative.

Monday, October 25, 2010

A bottom for Usd/Jpy ?

Here's a possibility for a bottom in Usd/Jpy in the form of an ending diagonal. In an ending diagonal wave 5 cannot be larger in price than wave 3, so price cannot go below 78.35. On the other hand, if this ending diagonal is a wave 5 on itself, then it should ( but doesn't have to ) go below the bottom of wave 3, which is the all time low at 79.76. This gives a small range for price to bottom at...

A new wave B top?

While the proposed count from the previous post is still possible, I know keep this as an alternative. I moved the end of wave B up, so now price could be starting a wave C. Look for 5 waves down to confirm this.

Friday, October 22, 2010

All I see are 3's

We continue to be in a market that is complex and hard to count, typical corrective behaviour. The 3 waves down noted as problem yesterday were indeed part of a bigger corrective pattern. It is still unclear what that exact pattern is and we can only wait for more data for things to clear up.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

3 Wave Trouble

After rejecting the 76.4% FIB and the price level where the 2nd leg of the rally equals 61.8% of the 1st leg ( around the same price ), price has gone down and has even broken the rising trendline. The problem is that the decline is in 3 waves, which could mean several things. It is possible that the wave B rally isn't complete yet, if this is the case, look for the price to test the highs. On the other hand, it could also mean that wave B is going to be a triangle and this top is only wave a of B of that triangle. And yet another possibility is that this top wasn't a wave B top but a wave X top in a complex double three correction. This would mean wave Y has started and we are only seeing the first parts of it.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

A longer term look

Here are the larger timeframe counts:

Main count ( close to invalidation point of 1.4004 )

Alternative count

Time to sell the rallies?

Here's a 1 hour chart for Eur/Usd. Notice the H&S pattern and the broken blue trendline, both signs that we have topped. For the EW count I prefer the 1-2-i count, for this price should not get above 1.40. If price does go above that level, the alternative count comes into play, but no new high is expected.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

4 Ways Down

My broker opens a bit earlier than most that's why there's a little extra movement on sunday on my charts. This can cause some problems when counting waves on short term. The upper left is my main count, the upper right would fit more if you don't count the early sunday moves. On the bottom we see the corrections, which could be part of a bigger correction. I will look at how price evolves and will zoom out to a bigger timeframe in the near future.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Red Line Limit

The 5 waves down were correct and we did go lower. Now, for this count to remain valid price has to stay under the red line at 1.4004.

Sunday, October 17, 2010

5 Waves Down On 1 Min Chart

Here's how i'm counting the decline from the top. It looks very much impulsive. The high should not be broken and price should continue to decline this week.

Friday, October 15, 2010

When The Top Comes

When trying to pick a top, you usually never succeed at the first try, but the goal is to pick it with the smallest losses possible and eventually catch the big one which makes up for all those small losses. With that in mind, here's another possible top.

Thursday, October 14, 2010

Bull or Bear

As i said in my previous post, I'm looking for 5 waves down. A diagonal also counts as a 5 wave move. If the diagonal is correct, price should not exceed the high, if it does, the alt is the way to count this decline.

Possible Top

The rally from the wave 4 low came as expected. Wave 5 should be finishing soon, but could go a little bit higher. We'll have to wait and see. Look for 5 waves down to confirm a top.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

EW wants one more high

There are a lot of signs that the trend is ready to reverse. The resistance, like noted in my previous post, seems to hold for now. A small trendline was broken to the downside. And there was a lower low, which is something that didn't happen since wave Y started. However, the EW-pattern does not seem finished yet... A last wave 5 of C of Y should take price to a small new high. After this, the new downtrend should begin.

Thursday, October 7, 2010

The next point of resistance

The euro rally has been relentless, blowing through all possible resistance as if it didn't exist. So now we're at another point of possible resistance. Round number resistance 1.40, the 100% fib extention at 1.4045 and the 61.8%, which is allready being passed but could still offer some resistance. From an elliott wave point, it looks as if wave 3 of c of Y is finished now and we should expect a small wave 4 and 5 to complete the wave Y at the 100% fib. Beware of the NFP tommorow, it could bring big moves like it always does...