Sunday, December 25, 2011

Eur/Usd : Still down

Last week was another leg in the wave X. It is possible that this wave X transforms into a triangle, but for now i'm counting price in wave Y. This wave Y is part of a last leg of wave (W), which started at the 1.4939 top.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Eur/Usd : Decline to bottom

Last week i was looking for a breakout of the channel. This came in a different direction than expected. The highest probability was for a rally, but the market decided to decline instead. After breaking the channel, price retested it, meaning that the market recognizes the channel. The break was bearish and key levels have been broken. Price is now also firmly under the 2nd trendline of the daily chart. As for EW, price is near the end of wave (W) of Y. There's a nice fibonacci target zone around 1.2450 - 1.2500. Look for price to finally find some support around those price levels and start a wave (X) rally, which could take a couple of weeks depending on how sharp this rally will be.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Eur/Usd : Waiting for channel break

Not much has changed since last weeks update. Wave B has extended into a bigger corrective wave. There is possibility that this wave B will extend a little further down, but the channel should break to the upside soon. It will be interesting to see if this will be in a corrective or impulsive way.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Eur/Usd : Countertrend rally

The big trendline on the 4 hour chart was broken last week on a second try, the first time the market snapped back under it. I am now looking how high this countertrend rally will go. 1.4246 should hold unless wave X (started at 1.3145) isn't finished yet. Another possibility is that this countertrend rally has allready finished and price is ready to continue the decline. However with the big trendline break, chances are greater that this rally will go higher. This is why i believe the count with the highest probability is the one where this rally will continue higher as indicated on the chart below. 1.3851 is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 1.4246 and seems like a good place for price to go to now.