Friday, December 7, 2012

Aud/Usd : Triangle

The count presented in the previous aud/usd post, a complex double three from the top, is still valid but a triangle count becomes more probable because wave y would take much more time than wave w. A triangle always offers a choice since it can transform easily into another corrective wave, either another triangle or a complex double three, sometimes even into an ending diagonal. My choice is the bearish triangle because of the bigger timeframe count. But we have to keep an open mind for this pair and play the shorter timeframe waves since the offer more tradable opportunities.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

SP500 : Bearish warning

The big thing that happened in the SP500 is the break of the ending diagonal triangle trendline. Since that break price has rallied back to retest this trendline. Price is now showing signs of reversal (daily shooting star through the 61.8% fib retracement). Even a smaller trendline is breaking, with 2 possibilities, either the rally is a wave 2 and price cannot go above 1435.61 or this is a wave B which can allow higher prices. No matter what count is correct a powerfull wave lower is coming, which, if the longer term count is correct, will only be the start of a much bigger decline.

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Eur/Usd : Rally over?

A first possibilty for the countertrend rally to end is around this level. The correction can still transform into a bigger corrective wave.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

SP500 : Watch the trendline

In the last post i showed a possible ending diagonal, where a small thrust above the upper trendline was needed after which price had to reverse. This is exactly what happened and i now believe chances are really high that SP500 has put in a top that will not be retested for a very long time.

On the 4 hour chart, counting is a little less certain. One thing is clear, price action from the top is corrective. This has made me change the top at 1474 to an X wave top, which puts price in the beginning of wave Y. We will have to wait and let price decide if price action from 1435 is corrective or impulsive. For the impulsive count, price cannot go above the red line at 1407. 
The corrective count allows for a bigger corrective rally.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Eur/Usd : Corrective wave down

From the 1.3171 top i count the decline as a corrective wave, a complex double three. A target for the end of this corrective wave comes around 1.2770, with 2 nice 100% fibonacci extention levels around this level. After this, price action will be important for the bearish count. The rally has to be corrective and should stay under 1.3171 ( unless the rally is an expanded wave B ). It's also possible that countertrend rallies will get small both in time and price as the downtrend will accelerate.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Xau/Usd : Top of the range

In the last post about gold vs the us dollar i had 2 possibilities, both were invalidated. I am actually happy about this, because this gives this new count a lot more power. I believe a great opportunity to short with little risk and huge potentiel gains is here now, it's never 100% sure but i like the good odds here. 2 equal legs from the bottom and price at top of the channel to form the end of a corrective pattern. It is possible that this corrective wave transforms into a bigger correction but because price has allready taken so much time to form wave B i believe the chance that this corrective wave isn't finished is very small.

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Eur/Usd : Downtrend still alive

In my last post about eur/usd i was looking for a top, unfortunately this didn't happen, price rallied higher. The important thing is that i still count this rally as corrective with a good chance of being finished. This makes me take a look at the longterm count. Let me first present you with a chart posted on this blog may 10th 2011. Here you can see i was looking for a downtrend to begin. A lot of people had another view due to price breaking the trendline. But price declined and wave Y started.

The question now becomes how to count the waves inside this wave Y. I see 2 possibilities as shown on the chart below. It's all about where wave (W) of Y finished. In the first scenario, circled in red, wave (W) of Y finished at 1.2623 and wave (X) of Y is a bit small, but this doesn't make the count impossible, no rules are broken. A nice fibonacci target zone comes around 1.1716 - 1.1773. In the second scenario, circled in green, wave (X) of Y is sharp and is the biggest rally since the 1.50 top. Also price broke a pretty strong trendline and just like when price was around 1.50 a lot of people are bullish now. The difference here is that this time around, price is still in a big downtrend, instead of at the end of an uptrend, making this top a counterrally top. A nice fibonacci target zone for the second scenario is at 1.0795 - 1.0957.

Let me finish by saying that there are a lot of valid signals for a bottom, but the previous low at 1.1875 ( wave W low ) will act like a magnet to attract price. Another thing i'd like to mention is that there are different possibilities to count eur/usd, my alternative count has price in wave E of an expanded triangle. But before i look at this alternative count, price needs to break the cycle of lower lows and lower highs, with the latest lower high at 1.3485.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

SP500 : Rally to top

I've had some requests for an EW count for the SP500 so here it is. Price to me looks to be corrective with a wave C as a contracting ending diagonal. A final rally should put the top in place and what will follow will probably not be very pretty as price should eventually break the 666 low, now that's evil...

Friday, September 7, 2012

Xau/Usd : Topping

There are a couple of valid ways to count the rally from the may 2012 low. I propose one where the top is in allready, other counts allow for another high. 1 thing is for sure, the rally is corrective. On the bigger view, i have 2 counts which are actually very simular since they both expect a decline and break of the lows. The first count, which has been my main count for a long time, has price in a wave y of Y of a complex double three combination. The second count came from price being in a range between 1550 and 1800 since september 2011 and has this range as a bearish triangle wave B.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price did not break the trendline as i suggested in the previous post but bounced higher forming another leg in a corrective pattern. I do keep the idea of a triangle around 1.23 but turned it into a bullish one. Also, the leg following the triangle is 200% of the wave before the triangle. It is possible that inside this wave Y another leg higher comes now, but 1.2640 should hold as resistance zone since it's the 100% fib extention of wave W.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Eur/Usd : Breaking the trendline

In the last update i mentioned that the rally from the low was corrective. Since then, there was another leg higher into a new high. From this high, the decline is corrective aswell and forming a small triangle which lays upon a supportive trendline. Wave E could be complete or have another leg higher, but as long as 1.2381 does not get broken, the triangle count remains valid and price will eventually break the trendline. Should price go above 1.2381, the corrective pattern could transform into another corrective pattern, like a complex double three.

Thursday, August 2, 2012

Eur/Usd : Bullish trap?

The last update (15min chart) showed a clear flat corrective wave. This wave was followed by a short range of overlapping waves, which to me can only be counted as a complex corrective wave, anything else is because you want this to fit into a bigger picture. In this case, if you watch the price action from the low, you could be fooled to believe there are 5 waves up. I prefer to count the short range of overlapping waves as a complex corrective wave which forms wave Y in a bigger complex corrective wave. Another reason why i think this is valid is because the size of this wave y of Y is 50% of wave w of Y. The most common relation between waves W and Y is 100% or 76.4%, less common is 50%, 150% or 200%. With flat corrections the relationship is most commonly 161.8%, less common 61.8% or 261.8%. In the bigger picture, we can see that the corrective price action from the 1.2389 top, could simply be the start of a wave Y, which is also corrective. Don't forget that when you're in a bigger picture corrective mode, that a change in trend does not have to come in 5 waves. This can however make finding new trends harder or riskier. In this case a break of the 1.2389 level would invalidate this count and we will have to adjust to a bigger corrective wave.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Eur/Usd : 15min flat

A short term count for eur/usd, classic flat pattern, where wave C = 161.8% of A.

Xau/Usd : Triangle complete

The last couple of weeks, gold in dollars has been in a narrowing range. The triangle count looks complete now with wave E peaking above the AC trendline. Alternative counts have price still in wave C of the triangle, or in a wave Y of a complex double three.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Aud/Usd : The aussie bear is back

Aud/Usd has finished a complex double three, which can be counted as a wave X inside a bigger wave Y. This means that wave Y of Y has most probably started now. An alternative count is a big triangle, where price is now in wave C of a bearish triangle, where the 3 waves down from the +/- 1.10 high is wave A and the triangle is wave B. In this case wave C can go higher. Taking a look at the equities, i believe they're starting a huge decline aswell, which would favor the bearish aud/usd count.

Monday, July 9, 2012

Eur/Usd : Still in a downtrend

Since the last update there was a lot of sideways action, followed by a big move down last week. This sideways action suggets a triangle, which has ended and the downtrend has now continued. A slight adjustment from the previous count was needed, this is because there is an expanded triangle, which was a little less probable but now seems to be the correct count, even if the expansion is large.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Xau/Usd : Big move down

Last time i talked about gold against the US dollar, the main count was bearish. This count was impulsive but price turned out corrective, which means that from the alltime high there is a complex double three correction, or WXY correction. Inside this complex double three, we are ready to start wave C of Y, which looks impulsive again, meaning that a powerfull 3th wave is ready to start.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Eur/Usd : Target is 1.1875

If we look at the price action, it is clear that there are a lot of complex corrective waves on different levels. This should continue until the 1.1875 low have been broken. Should price go above 1.2824 the count is wrong.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Eur/Usd : Downtrend will continue

In the last post i was looking for price to break out to the downside and it did. The decline has stalled at the 1.3000 support level but should continue lower to finish a complete 3 wave pattern from the 1.3485 high. After this, price will probably retest the 1.3000 former support turned into resistance zone before resuming the downtrend which will eventually break the 2010 low at 1.1875.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Eur/Usd : Breaking out soon

Price has followed the alternative path in taking another leg higher. Now price is stuck between 2 contracting trendlines and a breakout to the downside is expected.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

Eur/Usd : Rally is corrective

In the last post i was looking for a wave C. Price did decline as expected, but the size of this wave C was only 61.8% of wave A, probably due to the support zone around 1.3000. This is actually common for flat corrections. The reason i expected a bigger wave C is because the bigger pattern indicates that the trend is down and in this case the bigger waves happen in the direction of the trend. For this same reason i am now looking at this rally as complete. Alternative is for another high. Above 1.3485 means that the count is in danger of being wrong, but it can since the rally is a wave B.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Eur/Usd : Ready to resume downtrend

People who aren't used to coming to this blog and have only a little knowledge about elliott wave might find all the wxy labels confusion, don't worry they're called complex (double threes) for a reason. It's not so hard to understand, instead of an abc where the last wave, wave c, is a 5 wave move, a wxy has the last move, wave y, as a 3 wave move, but it's a lot harder to find them and there are a lot more options for the correction to evolve into something else. This is also why i have the last wave on the chart, the wave we are in currently, as an abc flat. This implies that the decline will be impulsive and any sign of an impulsive move from the top even on small timeframes could be considered as a start of wave c. On the other hand, if this decline will be a wave y, even on the smaller timeframes, you will find a lot of overlapping corrective waves. We'll have to wait and see how the market will play it out. The important thing is that this latest rally, be it wave b or x seems finished ( unless this is the first leg of b/x ) and price seems ready to continue the downtrend.

Monday, March 26, 2012

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price has followed the projected path pretty accurately, maybe rallying a bit earlier than expected, but nothing to force a change in the count. The rally now seems to be nearing a top and the downtrend is ready to resume. 1.3485 is key to the bearish count, a break above that would mean wave (X) wasn't complete yet.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Eur/Usd : Going deeper

Last week higher prices got rejected and price was back under the trendline. This is a bearish signal, which calls for lower prices. If i am correct and the latest high was the end of wave (X), the eventual target is 1.1875 and lower. This puts us at the start of corrective wave (Y). We can see from the wave (X) high there are 3 waves down, like always at the start of the 3th wave in a complex double three, this could also mean that we are still in wave (X), but this is an alternative for now. So these 3 waves down are the start of wave (Y), or A of (Y) in the making, and we could see a small rally or some range trading, before the downtrend resumes.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Xau/Usd : New downtrend or end of correction?

What an impressive decline we saw yesterday. The decline certainly looks impulsive. The big question is now, was this the start of a new decline or was this a wave C of an expanded flat. The break of the trendline suggests it is a new downtrend, but we will only be sure if the low of the new downtrend gets broken again in an impulsive way.

Main count :

Alternative count :

Monday, February 27, 2012

Eur/Usd : In search of a top

The decline from the highs is corrective, so if this is the start of a new downtrend, this downtrend would be a wave (Y). Wait for a break of the trendline for more confirmation that a top is in place.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Xau/Usd : Breaking lower

The rally is clearly corrective and appears to be finishing. A break of the trendline should follow and price will be in a downtrend for a while.Afbeelding toevoegen

Eur/Usd : Watch the trendline

This pair is looking like it wants to reverse lower. Wait for a break of the trendline for confirmation. Alternative is that wave (X) isn't complete yet and price is forming a wave x or b of (X).

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Eur/Usd : Topping?

A problem is the 1.31-1.32 zone, is there a triangle, a complex double three where wave Y ends above the wave W low or is this "failure wave Y" a wave B followed by an impulsive wave C? The last possibility seems the best since i don't like using failure waves and the triangle has price going through the B-D trendline, which in my experience is usually an indication that there is no EW triangle. There are 2 counts i'm following. The first count has price going higher and counts the rally from 1.2623 to 1.3233 as 1 corrective wave W. Inside this wave W could be an ABC flat, but problem here is that wave A and C are almost equal, not very common for flats, but not impossible. So perhaps this wave W is not a flat but a complex double three, which brings us to the alternative count.

Here wave Y is hard to count as corrective wave, but the relation in size makes this a possibility. Wave W and Y are almost equal and wave Z is 78.6% of W and Y.

Looking at the smaller timefrime we can see price has completed a corrective wave from the top followed by 3 waves up. These 3 waves up can mean a couple of things. Either this is a completed corrective wave and price continues below the low of 1.3154, this could also just be the first wave of a corrective wave ( A or W ) or the start of a new corrective rally which takes out the highs. We'll have to wait and see how the market plays out and how it reacts to the event in Greece.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Eur/Usd : Going higher

Price is hard to count and there are a lot of corrective waves. This is for me the most probable count.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Eur/Usd : 2 possibilities

Last time the question was how high this rally can go and it looks like we are allready at a possible top. If this is the big wave (X) top allready or only the first leg of wave (X) needs to be seen. Other Usd crosses are also showing signs of being at or near a top.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Aud/Usd : Attack on the trendline

As price comes closer to the top, things are clearing up, inside wave Y there are now 2 equal legs. This top is still close to the 100% fibonacci extension of wave W. Inside wave Y of Y, the same thing has happened. The fibonacci extension resistance zone has kept up and should continue to do so. To be sure the top is in the trendline should break, leaving us with a double top pattern.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Aud/Usd : Topping?

Since the last update price went higher and even broke the trendline, this could be considered bullish. Overall price action looks very much corrective, leaving us with a lot of possible counts, including triangle counts, which are easy to spot but hard to count because of the many possibilities in which it can transform. With all the possibilities it is smart to zoom in and focus on the smaller timeframes untill the bigger picture clears up. Focus now goes to 1.0577, the 100% fib extension from the 0.9661 - 1.0378 rally. If this holds it will mean the rally from 0.9661 is a complete 3 wave structure on its own, how this 3 wave structure fits into the bigger picture remains to be seen. It could be a wave C, D, E or X. I will make a chart with all possible counts if 1.0577 holds.

Eur/Aud : Countertrend rally

Since breaking the big support level (much quicker than i expected) noted in the previous post for eur/aud, price has continued going lower in a corrective way. The downtrend probably comes from the difference in interest rates, away from the euro and into the more profitable australian dollar. That being said, it does not mean that there can't be technical countertrend rallies like the one i'm looking for now.

Eur/Usd : How high can it go?

After breaking the trendline, 1.2877 didn't hold either and the downtrend which started at 1.4939 has ended for now. The question is now how high price can reach in this countertrend rally. A first possible target is the trendline which connects the 1.1875 and 1.3145 lows. This could be retested quickly and result in a short wave (X) of Y. Another possibility is that this level will only end a first leg in the countertrend rally, A of (X) of Y. For this we have to analyze the smaller timeframes.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Eur/Usd : Watch the trendline

The rally off the lows is stronger than i expected, but as long as 1.2877 holds the trend remains down. Also keep a close eye on the trendline, if this breaks it could be an early sign of a trend reversal.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Xau/Usd : One more decline?

Remember in the last update for xau/usd the title was byebye gold!, at the time gold was around 1800. Since then price has declined to below 1532! The question now becomes if this decline was a complete wave Y or if its only the first part of wave Y. Judging by the size of this decline compared to the size of wave W, chances seem greater that there will be another leg lower.

Aud/Usd : Back down

It's been a while since i updated my aud/usd chart but the count is still on track since the last update. It appears price will start another leg lower. This leg is the last part of a bigger corrective wave. An alternative count would involve a triangle.

Eur/Usd : Reversal is looming

The euro declined further as expected and is now just above the fibonacci support zone. Look for one more attack on this support zone for price to reverse.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Eur/Usd : Close to bottom

Eur/Usd is in the last stage of the decline. 1.2450 - 1.2590 remains a zone where price could be drawn to before reversing. 1.2735 could also be the level to watch as it is the 100% of the corrective wave inside Y of Y of Y of (W). A reversal in trend will not start with a 5 wave move in the opposite direction since the new big wave starting is wave (X), which is still corrective.