Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Aud/Usd : Attack on the trendline

As price comes closer to the top, things are clearing up, inside wave Y there are now 2 equal legs. This top is still close to the 100% fibonacci extension of wave W. Inside wave Y of Y, the same thing has happened. The fibonacci extension resistance zone has kept up and should continue to do so. To be sure the top is in the trendline should break, leaving us with a double top pattern.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Aud/Usd : Topping?

Since the last update price went higher and even broke the trendline, this could be considered bullish. Overall price action looks very much corrective, leaving us with a lot of possible counts, including triangle counts, which are easy to spot but hard to count because of the many possibilities in which it can transform. With all the possibilities it is smart to zoom in and focus on the smaller timeframes untill the bigger picture clears up. Focus now goes to 1.0577, the 100% fib extension from the 0.9661 - 1.0378 rally. If this holds it will mean the rally from 0.9661 is a complete 3 wave structure on its own, how this 3 wave structure fits into the bigger picture remains to be seen. It could be a wave C, D, E or X. I will make a chart with all possible counts if 1.0577 holds.

Eur/Aud : Countertrend rally

Since breaking the big support level (much quicker than i expected) noted in the previous post for eur/aud, price has continued going lower in a corrective way. The downtrend probably comes from the difference in interest rates, away from the euro and into the more profitable australian dollar. That being said, it does not mean that there can't be technical countertrend rallies like the one i'm looking for now.

Eur/Usd : How high can it go?

After breaking the trendline, 1.2877 didn't hold either and the downtrend which started at 1.4939 has ended for now. The question is now how high price can reach in this countertrend rally. A first possible target is the trendline which connects the 1.1875 and 1.3145 lows. This could be retested quickly and result in a short wave (X) of Y. Another possibility is that this level will only end a first leg in the countertrend rally, A of (X) of Y. For this we have to analyze the smaller timeframes.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Eur/Usd : Watch the trendline

The rally off the lows is stronger than i expected, but as long as 1.2877 holds the trend remains down. Also keep a close eye on the trendline, if this breaks it could be an early sign of a trend reversal.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Xau/Usd : One more decline?

Remember in the last update for xau/usd the title was byebye gold!, at the time gold was around 1800. Since then price has declined to below 1532! The question now becomes if this decline was a complete wave Y or if its only the first part of wave Y. Judging by the size of this decline compared to the size of wave W, chances seem greater that there will be another leg lower.

Aud/Usd : Back down

It's been a while since i updated my aud/usd chart but the count is still on track since the last update. It appears price will start another leg lower. This leg is the last part of a bigger corrective wave. An alternative count would involve a triangle.

Eur/Usd : Reversal is looming

The euro declined further as expected and is now just above the fibonacci support zone. Look for one more attack on this support zone for price to reverse.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Eur/Usd : Close to bottom

Eur/Usd is in the last stage of the decline. 1.2450 - 1.2590 remains a zone where price could be drawn to before reversing. 1.2735 could also be the level to watch as it is the 100% of the corrective wave inside Y of Y of Y of (W). A reversal in trend will not start with a 5 wave move in the opposite direction since the new big wave starting is wave (X), which is still corrective.