Monday, February 28, 2011

15min update

Here's a quick update for the 15min count i posted earlier today. A corrective wave down could be complete or nearly complete. An alternative is that wave 2 is not finished yet and will take more time. Price retraced 50% of the wave 1 rally and internally the corrective wave is a complex double three.

Wave 1 of C?

Here's a 15min chart of what looks like a 5 wave rally. This would be wave 1 of C. Looking for a 3 waves move down to finish wave 2 of C. The problem with this count is the size of wave v of 1, small but not impossible.

Poll results

Thank you to everyone who participated in the poll. It looks like most people want more updates for eurusd. I will try to get more updates, but i can't promise anything since i have a day job, but i will try. I will also look into doing some SP500 forecasts and analyze more fx pairs and gold. I was going to look into making videos, but it seems no one wants to hear my angelic voice, so won't be doing that.

Saturday, February 26, 2011

When will the rally resume

As promised in yesterdays post, here are the 2 possibilities i see for eurusd. First is the main count where wave X is complete. Look for a wave B of Y to finish around the 61.8% fib retracement of wave A of Y or just slightly lower to the 76.4% fib retracement. There's also a small possibility that wave B will be much smaller because of the speed of wave (Y).
The alternative count has wave X of (Y) not finished yet. This would bring the support ( former resistance ) zone back into focus as a possible ending point for wave X.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Wave B down

Price went just a little bit higher, but the idea of a top remains in place. I have changed the labels to show where i think this rally fits into the bigger picture, the top probably was wave A of Y, which puts us in wave B of Y now. The decline started in 3 waves which means the rest will also be a corrective wave. The alternative is that this decline is a wave Y on a larger degree, i will go more into this over the weekend.

Thursday, February 24, 2011

No wave 3

Two things that made me go for the alternative count, no price explosion which is needed in a wave 3 and the rejection of the 100% fib extention. The complex price action with a lot of overlapping waves is much more common for corrective waves. It is still uncertain however, where this fits into the bigger picture. Like i said in my last post, this could be a of Y or b of X on a bigger degree.

Important day

Price went higher but i find it really hard to count it as impulsive waves. Especially the blue wave i is hard to count as 5 waves internally. For the main count to remain in play price will have to go higher fast today. The neckline of the head and shoulder pattern got tested and supported price, this could also help for the bullish case. Should the alternative count prove to be the correct one, it is uncertain if the latest high is wave A of Y or B of X on a larger degree. More time is needed for clear forecasts.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Waiting for confirmation

Price has rallied in what seems a lot like an impulsive wave. This wave did not make a new high so it should be part of a bigger impulsive wave. That is why i'm counting todays rally as a wave 1 of C. Note the inverse head and shoulder pattern for a wave X low. Breaking the neckline should accelerate the rally. Wave 2 could be complete but could require another low. A break below the rising trendline would put the count in danger.

Start of the rally

What a drop we had overnight, but it was shown in yesterdays post that a drop was likely. Price now seems to have bounced of the former channel ( flag ), a trendline support and the 61.8% fib retracement level. Price should now start a rally that should go above 1.3860 at least and normally much higher.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Waiting for the rally

Price went lower in 3 waves as expected. It is possible that these 3 waves are a complete correction ( alt ), but i believe this correction needs more time and will go a little deeper, maybe even as low as a retest of the former channel. After this, the uptrend should continue.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Going higher

On the daily chart we can see that price has broken out of a bullish flag pattern. This gives a target of 1.4429, the 100% extention of the flag pole. The question at this point is whether this target level is the end of wave B ( alternative count, near the 76.4 fib extention of (W) ) or only a first part of (Y) of B ( eventual target would be the 100% fib extention of (W) at 1.5140 ).

On the hourly chart, we can see that the rally is corrective ( complex double three, abcxabc ). Since there is a bullish flag pattern on the larger timeframes, i prefer to count this as a start of a larger rally, probably a wave Y ( i've used the labels of the alternative count on the daily chart because the degree is uncertain ). Look for a retest of the flag channel in the form a wave B. Another possibility is that wave X isn't finished yet and price goes lower first, in this case the flag pattern will no longer be in play, unless it becomes a bigger flag.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Ready for a rally

While it's still possible that we go down to test the 100% fib, i believe price is ready to break the channel to the upside. Either in the form of a big wave C or as a complex double three ( alt ).

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

In the support zone

It looks like the support zone is holding for now. The rally from the low at 1.3427 is in 3 waves, which can mean 2 things, either the decline isn't finished yet and we get a test of the 100% fib extention level or the wave Y rally has started ( wave Y is a 3 wave corrective wave part of a bigger correction which starts with 3 waves even on the smallest degree ).

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Bottom or 1 more low

Price went lower as expected and is in the support zone now. It is possible that price will turn higher from here, but the problem is that price since the possible bottom is only in 3 waves. This could simply mean we are in a wave Y instead of wave C or it could mean that the decline isn't finished yet and wave B will finish lower.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Complex Double Three wave B

The triangle count got invalidated so i am now looking for price to go deeper in the support zone to finish wave Y of B. The ideal target would be the 100% fib extention at 1.3390. Price could bottom higher, but that's for the market to decide.

Waiting on a rally

Either price is in a wave B triangle ( wave c of this triangle ending now or soon ) or in the last leg down of a complex double three wave B. The support zone seems to be holding for now but it's still very early. I know most people are very bearish because of what looks like 5 waves down from the 1.3860 top, i'm counting it as a complex double three, a corrective wave.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Closer to the zone

Here's the closer look again. It is possible that we are at a wave B bottom. Another possibility is that we have 1 more low to go. There are other counts possible ofcourse, like wave Y in this WXY not being finished yet, but the bigger picture remains the same, we are close to an interesting price zone, which should offer support for B of (Y).

On track

Price has started a decline late last week, even leaving a bearish candle on the weekly chart. However, i am not convinced that this is the start of a new trend, since i have this decline as a wave B. The size of this wave B could be small because of the former resistance now support zone. Should this support zone break, i would still be looking at this as a wave B but with a deeper target for wave B.

Friday, February 4, 2011

New trend or correction?

The decline looks like 5 waves, but the first part of this 5 wave move is anything but a clear 5 waves. That's why i think it is possible that we are in WXY wave B of (Y). As i noted before, this could be a small wave because of the former heavy resistance now support.

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Complex Price Action

Price went higher so i have to adjust the count. 1 way to count it is as a complex triple three wave, but this is not very common and there is a complex triple three inside this triple three. Another possibility is that wave B is finished allready and we go only higher from here. The reason i'm hesitant to count it as such is because indicators are still diverging a lot, so it would require a decline or some ranged action to reset these indicators condition. Look for the channel break to confirm the rally is finished ( or paused ).

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Looking for a decline

Wave B of B went a little higher than expected, but not high enough to change the count. Wave C has to start now or very soon or the count will have to be changed.