Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Buying the dips

It appears that wave c of B is finished. Wave C could be really sharp and violent. Also note the flag pattern, if this breaks to the upside we'll have confirmation of higher prices to come.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Working the B?

After rejecting the 61.8% fib resistance again price finally went lower. The internal structure is unclear at the moment, but this should be a wave c of B or 3 of v. The alternate count counts the first wave as corrective not impulsive like i orginally thought (see post earlier this month) with a small wave c of A. Below 1.2208 invalidates the alternate count.

Friday, June 25, 2010

US Dollar - Swiss Frank update

Here's an update to my Usd/Chf count. I'm a long term bull on this pair because of the wave structure since early 1900 ( see previous post about this pair, "the dollar pension fund" ).

And here's an alternative in case the red line gets broken.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

So many choices

There are different ways to count the decline, but with the small decline out of the triangle i think this is a wave 5 rather then a small wave c. The following rally could be complete or could need one more wave higher. On the bigger timeframe, with the decline probably being impulsive, it is possible that the high (1.2485) is the end of wave IV of 3 or wave A and the impulsive wave is wave "a" of a zigzag (5-3-5)

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Out of the triangle

The triangle count was the correct count. It came faster then expected. That happens sometimes...

In the middle of the middle

There's a possibility that wave b of B is a triangle. We might get a breakout down on the FOMC news later today.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Wave B down

The top was finally in after a complex triple three correction. I'm now looking for a wave B to form. The first part, a of B, seems to be finished. Wave b of B could go as high as 61.8% of wave a of B. It could go higher, it could go lower, it just a common target for b waves.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Another top...

This is the problem with corrections, there can always be more 3-wave parts. I'm now looking at this triple three correction (w-x-y-x-z). There's always a possibility for another 3 waves to follow, so if you want to try a short, keep your risk small and tight.

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Is this the top?

I had to adjust the count for one more high. The 2nd abc was only wave a of the 2nd abc. The pattern should be complete now. If correct price should go lower over the next few days.

Let's make some Moolah

The decline in Eur/Aud has been pretty amazing... The big bullish engulfing candlestick pattern is a sign that a bottom is finally forming. The fact that it is on the 100% extension of wave W, suggests that a 3 wave pattern ( wave A ) has finished.

Monday, June 14, 2010

The first top

It seems that the rally is near an end for now. Looking for wave B to start soon.

Friday, June 11, 2010


We're at the point of invalidating the count. The size in both price and time was becoming way too big for a wave iv compared to the size of wave ii. So i'm now counting it as 5 waves down completed.

On the bigger timeframe, this puts us in either wave iv of 3, or in wave A of the 3 wave correction up from the bottom.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Complexity simplified

The complex correction was only wave "a" of a bigger correction. Price cannot exceed the red line for the count to remain valid.

The answer was complex

It appears wave iv ended as a complex correction (w-x-y). Since we topped in wave iv, we have 5 waves down and 3 waves up with price rejecting the 61.8% fib. This suggests that wave 5 is starting a 3th wave.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

The proposed triangle count didn't work out, so here are the rest of the possibilties. Breaking the green line would put high probability that wave iv has ended and wave v has started.

The final count down

There's a possibility that a wave 4 triangle is forming. There are a lot of other possibilities like a bigger triangle (still forming wave b), a flat, or a complex correction. All have the same outcome, an eventual new low in wave 5. Count is invalid if the wave 1 low is breached.

Monday, June 7, 2010

The dollar pension fund

Here's a reason for the alternate count in Eur/Usd. It looks to me that Usd/Chf has bottomed for an extremly long time. This would also mean that stocks have topped for a very long time...

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Small adjustments

I've adjusted my count a little bit. No more leading diagonal but a normal 1-2-3-4-5 count (green). As for the daily count, i've added a new alternate count in blue, where wave 3 is possibly extended.

Thursday, June 3, 2010

Euro breakout coming?

Looks like eur/usd could be ready to go higher in a wave 3 of C. Risk is small compared to the potentiel reward.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

To B(ottom) or not to B(ottom)...

The wave B correction went deeper than expected and price even made a small new low. This was quickly rejected, which keeps the possibility of this being an expanded B-wave intact. If price goes to a new low now, I will have to adjust my count.