Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Eur/Usd : The correction

Following the count where price has bottomed in a wave (W), price is now in wave (X). The first part of wave (X) seems to be finding some resistance as price has reached a small trendline.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Xau/Usd : Flat complete

It appears the decline had another low in it before making a bottom. From the top there is now a 3 wave move down, a 3 wave rally and a 5 wave decline. A 3-3-5 makes a flat. This completed flat is probably just a first part of a decline that will last for many weeks. Notice the big hammer that formed right at the 161.8% fib extension, helping to confirm a possible bottom.

Eur/Usd : A bounce to sell

Focus remains on the 100% fibonacci extension level as price seems to reject this level. Wave Y of (W) subdivides into a complex triple three ( wxyxz ). The alternative remains the same, where the 2nd X wave in the complex triple three is counted as a complete wave (X), the following decline would then be the first part of wave (Y), this is a very bearish count and the probability of this count being the correct count is small because of the very small wave (X).

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Xau/Usd : Pause in the decline

In gold against the us dollar (Xau/Usd) we can see that from the top there are 2 almost equal legs separated by a triangle. Since the 1920$ top is a major top i believe the rally will be corrective and should not reach a new high. The rally to the top was very strong and sharp, the reaction to this once price turns like it has now should be the same but in the opposite direction. It is for this that i believe that the countertrend rally could be small.

Aud/Usd : Countertrend rally

On the last post for this pair i was looking for a retest of the first trendline. This came slightly higher than expected, but once it happened price fell hard. So hard it has broken through the second trendline aswell. This decline looks like it's ready for a small countertrend rally, perhaps retesting the second trendline.

Eur/Usd : Triangle

On the 15min chart we can see that there's a good possibility of a triangle. There are different ways to count this and how this can evolve into another corrective pattern, but i believe a bullish triangle fits best.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Eur/Usd : Is a rally still possible

There's was no surprise rally, but instead a big decline. 2 things should be kept in mind, the break of the rising trendline is very bearish and the top at 1.4939 was a big top which will probably hold for a very very long time. Now let's have a look at the daily chart. Here we see that from the 1.4939 top price has declined in a corrective way. Today price has touched the level where there are now 2 equal legs from the top. The problem here is that the 2nd leg down is a complex triple three. In this case a rally is still looming which could retest the broken trendline.

If we count the second leg as a more common complex double three, the problem is that the rally following the bottom is very small, this is possible if the market decides to be extremly bearish, a bit like the 2008 decline.

Todays candle might also give some indication, a possible hammer could indicate a bottom. The question will then be how big the rally will be. I'm not looking to buy into a possilbe rally, but should price decide to rally anyway i will be ready to short at higher levels, especially if this rally reaches the trendline.

Eur/Usd : Surprise rally

With this latest decline it looks like bears are in control, but i believe that there is still a possibility for a rally to 1.40. Should price get below 1.3493, only 1.3446 could offer some support as a possible extended flat wave B, but chances would be much greater that this would be a start of a new downtrend, in other words wave (Y).

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Eur/Usd : Catching the rally

The triangle count didn't work out but the bigger count is still in play. This small wave X has transformed in a bigger complex correction and has nice fibonacci support zones.

Eur/Usd : Shortterm triangle possibility

Following the main count where price is in wave Y of (X) there's a possibility that x of w of Y of (X) is a triangle.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Eur/Usd : How low can you go?

Price made another low since yesterdays post but has rallied since. This rally is probably the start of wave Y of (X). The alternative, where wave (X) is allready complete, is still in play aswell.
It will be important to see how price reacts around the falling trendline, will price bounce in a retest or ignore the trendline and continue lower.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Eur/Usd : 1.40 resistance

At the moment there are 2 possibilities, either wave (X) is finished allready and price is getting ready to break the 1.3493 low in wave (Y) or wave (X) is still forming. I have a slight preference for an incomplete wave (X) because more time and price make a better wave (X) compared to the size of wave (W). If this is the case, a test of the 1.40 could be in the making. At 1.40 we have of course the round number resistance, but also the 200 week moving average which is now acting as resistance and the trendline on the daily chart should also push down price should price come near it.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Eur/Usd : Retesting the trendline

Todays rally is big enough for me to count 1.3493 as the end of wave (W). The rally following this bottom is clearly corrective and the question now is how long this rally will survive. Price is going to retest the important trendline at least once. After retesting once price could resume the downtrend, another retest a little higher and later seems more favourable.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Eur/Usd : Bearish flag

The count i've been following is on track. 1 more low would finish a 5th wave in an impulsive wave. This impulsive wave is a wave C of Y. The exact fibonacci numbers were not completly correct in the previous post since i was looking at daily candles. The zones were still pretty much the same however. An alternative is that the decline has allready finished and price is just starting a corrective rally that will retest the broken daily trendline.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Eur/Usd : Big Break

A important trendline got broken to the downside, together with a break of the previous low, this is now a downtrend. 2 possible stopping points for this downtrend are 1.3700, the 76.4% of W of (W) + 100% of A of Y, this implies that the break of the big trendline was in a corrective way. But this is just the alternative, the main count is that the break was impulsive and the target zone for this count is between 1.3346 ( 161.8% of A of Y )and 1.3445 ( 100% of W of (W) ). On a sidenote, my first child was born yesterday, a beautifull girl named Laura. I also proposed to my girlfriend and over the weekend i'm moving into my new house. To put it in EW terms : my life is in wave 3 of 3 up!

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Eur/Usd : Very bearish possibility

The decline from the 1.4280 high seems impulsive. Which means that this high should now be counted as wave B instead of X. This is because wave C is impulsive instead of a corrective wave Y. With the big support noted in yesterdays post, a break of this could come in the form of a wave iii of 3.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Eur/Usd : Weekly chart

A quick look at the weekly chart shows that price is at a crucial point. There is support from the rising trendline and the 200 weekly moving average. Even the falling trendline could offer support if you consider this a a retest of that trendline. Big support, but the EW count i've been following calls for a break of this support and when it does break, it could be violent...

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Eur/Usd : Trendline retest

The decline has ended for now and there was a sharp rally from the lows. It is possible that this rally is allready complete, but i believe price will go a little higher today first and retest the trendline.

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Usd/Cad : Going to 1.30

On the weekly chart we can see that the trendline got broken and now got retested. I'm not certain how to count the rally from the bottom, corrective or impulsive, but the direction is the same : up. There is a possibility that price will test the trendline again at a lower point, but for now i'm bullish.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Eur/Usd : Sell the rally

The first 2 trendlines mentioned in the previous post have been broken and focus now turns to big trendline which started at the low of june 2010. The decline from the 1.4939 top is a corrective wave Y which will eventually break the 1.1875 low. We are still in the early stages of this decline and now price has started a second leg lower. This second leg seems corrective to me, which tells me this is a complex double three. In complex double threes the ideal target is the 100% fib extension, 76.4% fib ext is also a common target level. So a first target for the decline is at 1.3446 ( or 1.3706 = 76.4% ). On the 15min chart we can see the first part is probably finished and when the markets open again, price should have a small rally for the first couple of hours/days and will form a retest of the minor trendline. This should offer a nice shorting opportunity.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Eur/Usd : Attack on the trendlines

A first minor trendline has been broken, which is an early signal of a trend reversal. The 2 other trendlines will be more important, especially the lowest one, but a break will come later and risk will be greater.