Monday, February 27, 2012

Eur/Usd : In search of a top

The decline from the highs is corrective, so if this is the start of a new downtrend, this downtrend would be a wave (Y). Wait for a break of the trendline for more confirmation that a top is in place.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Xau/Usd : Breaking lower

The rally is clearly corrective and appears to be finishing. A break of the trendline should follow and price will be in a downtrend for a while.Afbeelding toevoegen

Eur/Usd : Watch the trendline

This pair is looking like it wants to reverse lower. Wait for a break of the trendline for confirmation. Alternative is that wave (X) isn't complete yet and price is forming a wave x or b of (X).

Sunday, February 12, 2012

Eur/Usd : Topping?

A problem is the 1.31-1.32 zone, is there a triangle, a complex double three where wave Y ends above the wave W low or is this "failure wave Y" a wave B followed by an impulsive wave C? The last possibility seems the best since i don't like using failure waves and the triangle has price going through the B-D trendline, which in my experience is usually an indication that there is no EW triangle. There are 2 counts i'm following. The first count has price going higher and counts the rally from 1.2623 to 1.3233 as 1 corrective wave W. Inside this wave W could be an ABC flat, but problem here is that wave A and C are almost equal, not very common for flats, but not impossible. So perhaps this wave W is not a flat but a complex double three, which brings us to the alternative count.

Here wave Y is hard to count as corrective wave, but the relation in size makes this a possibility. Wave W and Y are almost equal and wave Z is 78.6% of W and Y.

Looking at the smaller timefrime we can see price has completed a corrective wave from the top followed by 3 waves up. These 3 waves up can mean a couple of things. Either this is a completed corrective wave and price continues below the low of 1.3154, this could also just be the first wave of a corrective wave ( A or W ) or the start of a new corrective rally which takes out the highs. We'll have to wait and see how the market plays out and how it reacts to the event in Greece.

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Eur/Usd : Going higher

Price is hard to count and there are a lot of corrective waves. This is for me the most probable count.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Eur/Usd : 2 possibilities

Last time the question was how high this rally can go and it looks like we are allready at a possible top. If this is the big wave (X) top allready or only the first leg of wave (X) needs to be seen. Other Usd crosses are also showing signs of being at or near a top.