Monday, March 26, 2012

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price has followed the projected path pretty accurately, maybe rallying a bit earlier than expected, but nothing to force a change in the count. The rally now seems to be nearing a top and the downtrend is ready to resume. 1.3485 is key to the bearish count, a break above that would mean wave (X) wasn't complete yet.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Eur/Usd : Going deeper

Last week higher prices got rejected and price was back under the trendline. This is a bearish signal, which calls for lower prices. If i am correct and the latest high was the end of wave (X), the eventual target is 1.1875 and lower. This puts us at the start of corrective wave (Y). We can see from the wave (X) high there are 3 waves down, like always at the start of the 3th wave in a complex double three, this could also mean that we are still in wave (X), but this is an alternative for now. So these 3 waves down are the start of wave (Y), or A of (Y) in the making, and we could see a small rally or some range trading, before the downtrend resumes.

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Xau/Usd : New downtrend or end of correction?

What an impressive decline we saw yesterday. The decline certainly looks impulsive. The big question is now, was this the start of a new decline or was this a wave C of an expanded flat. The break of the trendline suggests it is a new downtrend, but we will only be sure if the low of the new downtrend gets broken again in an impulsive way.

Main count :

Alternative count :