Friday, December 7, 2012

Aud/Usd : Triangle

The count presented in the previous aud/usd post, a complex double three from the top, is still valid but a triangle count becomes more probable because wave y would take much more time than wave w. A triangle always offers a choice since it can transform easily into another corrective wave, either another triangle or a complex double three, sometimes even into an ending diagonal. My choice is the bearish triangle because of the bigger timeframe count. But we have to keep an open mind for this pair and play the shorter timeframe waves since the offer more tradable opportunities.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

SP500 : Bearish warning

The big thing that happened in the SP500 is the break of the ending diagonal triangle trendline. Since that break price has rallied back to retest this trendline. Price is now showing signs of reversal (daily shooting star through the 61.8% fib retracement). Even a smaller trendline is breaking, with 2 possibilities, either the rally is a wave 2 and price cannot go above 1435.61 or this is a wave B which can allow higher prices. No matter what count is correct a powerfull wave lower is coming, which, if the longer term count is correct, will only be the start of a much bigger decline.