Sunday, December 19, 2010
Bear Trap
In my last post there was some trouble with the circled area. After looking into it now, the black circled area was corrective indeed. It was however part of a bigger corrective wave. The decline from 1.3358 to 1.3133 is now counted as a ( 2nd ) wave A of a complex double three inside a bigger wave B. This wave A subdivides as a complex double three correction on itself. When price goes below 1.3133 to finish wave B, the bears will be very convinced price is going much much lower, while in fact it looks very much like that will be a bear trap.
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Hi Jeremy,
ReplyDeleteI am tempted to subscribe to your scenario - the bull trap.
Just found a resource where they do not exclude such a development as the wave B of B.
http://www.marketvisiontv.com/index.php?id=83
Wishing you a great week ahead,
Catalin
That link shows me that the eurusd video is delayed. But if they have the same count i like these guys allready.
ReplyDeleteGood luck this week!
Jeremy, nice details and from what I see thats the best count with an equality ending the final part of this whole B correction around 1.3040ish...realizing this move is not obligated to end exactly there either, just an area to watch. The following C wave up would be a classic devistation to the short term bears. Thanks again! -Al
ReplyDeleteHey Al,
ReplyDeleteYou got it, 1.3040 is the ideal target but ideal targets rarely get reached. Sometimes price reverses higher, sometimes lower. We'll see, but the internal EW structure can help find the turning point. That's why when there's a top/bottom coming on the higher timeframe, i always focus on short term counts to help find the reversal.
Friendly greetings,
Jeremy
If the triangle gets confirmed as wave B within the second zig-zag, I now foresee more chances to hit 1.2970 (for a double bottom) where wave C = wave A in the second zig-zag, or even go down to 1.2825-1.2840 (making a extended flat at a larger degree) where wave C = 1.618 wave A within the second zig-zag
ReplyDeletethe 61.8% extention of ( 2nd ) A would put us near the 1.3040 level should there be a triangle. But that's close to invalidation atm, price needs to reverse down very soon
ReplyDeleteJeremy,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by 'invalidation atm'?
Speculating now: if the triangle does not confirm, than an alternative scenario is a double three which, without the thrust after the triangle, would make the target at 1.3040 to be the preferred one.
Best regards,
Catalin
atm = at the moment
ReplyDeletetriangle count is still in play. I see a possibility for another triangle, which will break out to the upside. We have to wait for a breakout to be sure.