Thursday, January 20, 2011

Top of the range

Price has fallen from the resistance zone, but has done so in a corrective way. So the expanded wave b count becomes very unlikely. It is possible that from the low, a corrective wave is finished now. There's a possibility for 1 more high before finishing. This would be the first part of wave (Y). Like i noted yesterday, should price decline from here, look for a inverse head and shoulder pattern to come into play.

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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 20, 2011 at 9:52 PM

    Hi Jeremy!

    I follow your rationale and cannot dispute it.
    ... but I still can't take out of my head the idea of a flat as the b wave, meaning that we shall now be close to the end of wave c of b.

    What would be the reason for which we shall negate this alternative?

    Thanks for your input.

    Best regards,

    Catalin

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jeremy DemunterJanuary 21, 2011 at 2:23 AM

    Hey Catalin,

    Are you talking about the rally from 1.2870 to 1.35 as a wave c of B ? If you are, then try and count these waves as impulsive on shorter timeframes. It looks much more like a corrective wave to me. Don't forget that the wave count has to fit on all timeframes, up to the 1 min chart. Just looking at the hourly chart and putting your count on that is sloppy. But that is just my thoughts on it.
    Anyway, you could be right about this being a wave B if the larger wave (B) or (X) isn't finished yet. The recent low around 1.2875 would then only be a wave A or W.

    Friendly greetings,
    Jeremy

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJanuary 21, 2011 at 8:41 AM

    I got it now.
    It is true that the rally from 1.2870 has a rather corrective start. Otherwise it requires a series of 1-2's in order to read it as impulsive. When there are too many 1-2' something smells bad. Still there are some who call this formations as 'nesting' and take it as impulsive?!
    So it is the structure of this last leg up that doesn't qualify a flat.

    Thanks for your feed-back, Jeremy!

    All the best!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jeremy DemunterJanuary 21, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    Well, don't look at a series of 1-2's as something bad, it can set you up for wild 3ths, but all of the 1-2's have to be 5 waves and 3 waves correction. In this case, there are places where i cannot count 5 waves inside what should be one of those nested 1-2's, especially the first part.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousJanuary 21, 2011 at 9:56 PM

    Hi Jeremy!

    Following this counting (the X leg down to 1.2870) and assuming that the previous major top of 1.4280 was the W wave, would qualify the prospect for the Y wave to reach at least 1.4360 which is 0.618% projection.

    Would you agree with that?

    Wishing you a great week end,

    Catalin

    ReplyDelete

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