Eur/Usd : Rally is corrective

In the last post i was looking for a wave C. Price did decline as expected, but the size of this wave C was only 61.8% of wave A, probably due to the support zone around 1.3000. This is actually common for flat corrections. The reason i expected a bigger wave C is because the bigger pattern indicates that the trend is down and in this case the bigger waves happen in the direction of the trend. For this same reason i am now looking at this rally as complete. Alternative is for another high. Above 1.3485 means that the count is in danger of being wrong, but it can since the rally is a wave B.

Eur/Usd : Ready to resume downtrend

People who aren't used to coming to this blog and have only a little knowledge about elliott wave might find all the wxy labels confusion, don't worry they're called complex (double threes) for a reason. It's not so hard to understand, instead of an abc where the last wave, wave c, is a 5 wave move, a wxy has the last move, wave y, as a 3 wave move, but it's a lot harder to find them and there are a lot more options for the correction to evolve into something else. This is also why i have the last wave on the chart, the wave we are in currently, as an abc flat. This implies that the decline will be impulsive and any sign of an impulsive move from the top even on small timeframes could be considered as a start of wave c. On the other hand, if this decline will be a wave y, even on the smaller timeframes, you will find a lot of overlapping corrective waves. We'll have to wait and see how the market will play it out. The important thing is that this latest rally, be it wave b or x seems finished ( unless this is the first leg of b/x ) and price seems ready to continue the downtrend.

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price has followed the projected path pretty accurately, maybe rallying a bit earlier than expected, but nothing to force a change in the count. The rally now seems to be nearing a top and the downtrend is ready to resume. 1.3485 is key to the bearish count, a break above that would mean wave (X) wasn't complete yet.

Eur/Usd : Going deeper

Last week higher prices got rejected and price was back under the trendline. This is a bearish signal, which calls for lower prices. If i am correct and the latest high was the end of wave (X), the eventual target is 1.1875 and lower. This puts us at the start of corrective wave (Y). We can see from the wave (X) high there are 3 waves down, like always at the start of the 3th wave in a complex double three, this could also mean that we are still in wave (X), but this is an alternative for now. So these 3 waves down are the start of wave (Y), or A of (Y) in the making, and we could see a small rally or some range trading, before the downtrend resumes.

Xau/Usd : New downtrend or end of correction?

What an impressive decline we saw yesterday. The decline certainly looks impulsive. The big question is now, was this the start of a new decline or was this a wave C of an expanded flat. The break of the trendline suggests it is a new downtrend, but we will only be sure if the low of the new downtrend gets broken again in an impulsive way.

Main count :



Alternative count :

Eur/Usd : In search of a top

The decline from the highs is corrective, so if this is the start of a new downtrend, this downtrend would be a wave (Y). Wait for a break of the trendline for more confirmation that a top is in place.

Xau/Usd : Breaking lower

The rally is clearly corrective and appears to be finishing. A break of the trendline should follow and price will be in a downtrend for a while.

Eur/Usd : Watch the trendline

This pair is looking like it wants to reverse lower. Wait for a break of the trendline for confirmation. Alternative is that wave (X) isn't complete yet and price is forming a wave x or b of (X).

Eur/Usd : Topping?

A problem is the 1.31-1.32 zone, is there a triangle, a complex double three where wave Y ends above the wave W low or is this "failure wave Y" a wave B followed by an impulsive wave C? The last possibility seems the best since i don't like using failure waves and the triangle has price going through the B-D trendline, which in my experience is usually an indication that there is no EW triangle. There are 2 counts i'm following. The first count has price going higher and counts the rally from 1.2623 to 1.3233 as 1 corrective wave W. Inside this wave W could be an ABC flat, but problem here is that wave A and C are almost equal, not very common for flats, but not impossible. So perhaps this wave W is not a flat but a complex double three, which brings us to the alternative count.

Here wave Y is hard to count as corrective wave, but the relation in size makes this a possibility. Wave W and Y are almost equal and wave Z is 78.6% of W and Y.

Looking at the smaller timefrime we can see price has completed a corrective wave from the top followed by 3 waves up. These 3 waves up can mean a couple of things. Either this is a completed corrective wave and price continues below the low of 1.3154, this could also just be the first wave of a corrective wave ( A or W ) or the start of a new corrective rally which takes out the highs. We'll have to wait and see how the market plays out and how it reacts to the event in Greece.

Eur/Usd : Going higher

Price is hard to count and there are a lot of corrective waves. This is for me the most probable count.