Todays action is common behaviour for a wave 3, the 100 pip rally would actually be a 3 of iii of 3, the most powerfull wave of EW. When combining EW with fibs you can project where waves can go, now this isn't exact science, but rather a guideline, or something that happens often but not all the time. So common targets for third waves are 161.8% and 261.8% fib extentions of wave 1. We are allready at the 161.8% ext of wave 1, but internally this wave has only a clear i-ii structure with a iii in the making. The 161.8% of wave i of 3 is at 1.4070, which could mark the top for iii of 3. Inside wave iii of 3 we are either in a larger ( in time ) wave 4 of iii of 3 or we have started a larger ( in price ) wave 5 of iii of 3. I always like to take the side of a surprise rally when in a larger wave 3, this usually proves the correct choice. One last thing, we are now at a big trendline visible on larger timeframes, when this gets broken to the upside, it will give more confirmation of the direction the market wants to go in. Below 1.3880 invalidates the wave 3 of iii of 3 count.
Thursday, March 3, 2011
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