Eur/Usd

There's a good chance the eur/usd pair is topping. In the bigger picture ( daily ) a triangle seems to be unfolding.



Looking closer to wave C (of the wave B triangle) we can see that the triple three combination, WXYXZ, is probably complete. Inside wave Z, wave Y is at 100% FIB extension, which is a casual target for double three combinations. Yes, a double three inside a triple three, just to keep things simple.

Eur/Usd Daily

I'm looking for 1 more high to finish the last leg in the ending diagonal wave C. Another possibility is that wave 5 is allready finished and the leg down from the top is a wave 1 with and expanded wave 2 correction, if this is the case, no new high should be made and a new downtrend will start soon.

Gold 4 Hours

Gold has rejected the 61.8% first now the last fibonacci at 76.4 has been rejected also. I am looking for a break of the rising trendline first and then i'm expecting a break of the previous low ( red line ).

Gold

Gold is playing out like expected. I'm looking for one more low before we go back up a bit.

Gold 2 hours update

There's a possibility that wave 4 is unfolding as a triangle.

Gold 2 hours

Looks like gold is going lower 1 more time for a wave 5. There was a breakout of the trendline but price is now back under that TL.

USD/JPY 1 Hour

Here's a close up of the wave D of the bigger triangle. Looks like price is in a small wave 4 ( of C ) triangle. There is a possibility that wave D is complete allready, instead of counting it as an ABC, I would count it as a WXY, where the latest high (indicated on the chart below as wave 3) would be the end of wave D. In other words, this pair is topping with a good possibility of 1 more high. After this "top" price should delcine one more time (wave E) to finish the big triangle.

Gold 4 hours

Late last week we broke through the rising trendline. I'm looking for a retest of the trendline early this week, followed by a decline in price for the second half of the week. This could be the start of a big decline, it could go to test the 864 low pretty fast.

USD/JPY

If the triangle scenario holds, this is wave D in the making. Wave Y is 2 times the size of wave W. There's also a nice fib extension after the wave A top, where wave c = 1.618 * wave a (but wave c could possibly not be finished yet).

Gold 4 hours

Here's a possibility for gold. Confidence is not very high because of the small wave X.

EDIT :

It's possible that wave c of Y is not yet finished and one more high is required like illustrated in the chart below.

Usd/Jpy

The triangle scenario is still possible as long as price remains above 93.54. Wave C of B has 2 waves down who are about the same size, this 100% fibonacci extension is acting as support and is pretty close to the 93.54 support.

Usd/Jpy

I'm starting to like the idea of a wave B triangle, followed by a short wave C ( 61.8% of A ? ). A flat is still possible aswell.

USD/JPY 4 Hour chart

Here's what I'm looking for on USD/JPY. The reason I don't see a top yet is because of the 3 wave action of wave b of B. I was looking for a ending diagonal but since there are only 3 waves, I was forced to review the count.

Gold is clearing up

If wave C is counted correctly, we have eliminated 1 of the 3 scenarios. The 2 remaining scenarios are basicly the same, only thing that will make a difference is if price goes higher then wave B on the chart below. I've added this chart since i have a slight preference for this count since a break of the trendline should be enough to take price above wave b, thus eliminating the 3th scenario.

Gold is at an important level

We are at a point where we will know very soon what gold will do in the next couple of months. Here are 3 possibilities:

1: Ending Diagonal

From the high a zigzag is complete, where C = A at 860.80. It is very much possible that this is only wave A of the wave 2 correction.



2: Flat Correction, wave C

Wave 3 should finish below or near 860.80. For wave 4, price has to stay below the red line indicated on the chart below. A triangle wave 4 along the rising trendline would fit nicely in this count. The break of this trendline should be voilent and wave 5 would be extended, unless this action is all just wave 1 of C.




3: Flat Correction, wave C

Same like scenario 2 but wave 3 is extended and wave 1 of 3 is nearly finished. Price will run higher (wave 2 of 3) before breaking the rising trendline with a wave 3 of 3.

Gold 1 hour

Looking for wave 4 of 3 to end. Count is wrong if price gets above the black horizontal line.

Gold and USD/JPY

My attention goes to gold and usd/jpy at the moment. Gold is going down in a wave 3 of 3 and usd/jpy is almost at a possible end of a correction.