Xau/Usd : Wave B to retest resistance

It's been a while since i posted, but the last post was about gold against the us dollar and things turned out as expected, perhaps just a little deeper end of wave (A), but still against valid fib targets, 150% for wave C (more common is 100%) of a complex double three (3-3-3), and wave C was a flat wave (3-3-5) with wave c of C being 161.8% of wave a of C.

Since the wave (A) low at 1180, price has gone up in what appears to be a corrective way, which is what I am looking for since price is in a wave (B). The decline from 1433 is possibly allready finished because price is at a 61.8% fibonacci retracement and wave c is 76.4% of wave a, but could very well go lower one more time to test the 76.4% fib retracement and the wave c is 100% of wave a level.

Xau/Usd : Big support broken

Price followed the count very well. The triangle had smaller waves D and E than i expected, but nonetheless price went lower, and how ! The big support level around 1550, which held for the last 2 years or so, was broken causing a very big and quick sell off. Elliott wave analysis tells us that this could very well be a wave 3 inside a wave C, alternatives are possible, but the direction is clear. 1400 remains the target, after that price could slow down and rebound to retest the big support turned resistance around 1550 in the form of wave B. Yes, this means i believe gold is in a long term bear market and could go as low as 1000 in 2014/2015.

Xau/Usd : Looking for 1400

Price has come down nicely as expected, but has found some support around 1.567, a fibonacci extention level. This was probably the end of a first corrective wave down from the 1795 top. The next wave could turn out to be a triangle wave B. If this is correct the downtrend will remain strong for the next couple of weeks/months untill price reaches 1400.

Xau/Usd : Still in a downtrend

In the previous xau/usd ( or Gold ) post, price was at the high of the channel. Since then price has come down nicely, but has done so in 3 waves which is corrective. This means that price is most likely in a wave Y, the third leg in a double three combination.  The 3 waves down from the wave X top are finished and price had a small rally which is also corrective. It is possible that this countertrend rally is allready finished, since we are in a strong downtrend, but it could transform into a bigger corrective pattern ( watch the alternative on the chart ).

Xau/Usd : Top of the range

In the last post about gold vs the us dollar i had 2 possibilities, both were invalidated. I am actually happy about this, because this gives this new count a lot more power. I believe a great opportunity to short with little risk and huge potentiel gains is here now, it's never 100% sure but i like the good odds here. 2 equal legs from the bottom and price at top of the channel to form the end of a corrective pattern. It is possible that this corrective wave transforms into a bigger correction but because price has allready taken so much time to form wave B i believe the chance that this corrective wave isn't finished is very small.

Xau/Usd : Topping

There are a couple of valid ways to count the rally from the may 2012 low. I propose one where the top is in allready, other counts allow for another high. 1 thing is for sure, the rally is corrective. On the bigger view, i have 2 counts which are actually very simular since they both expect a decline and break of the lows. The first count, which has been my main count for a long time, has price in a wave y of Y of a complex double three combination. The second count came from price being in a range between 1550 and 1800 since september 2011 and has this range as a bearish triangle wave B.

Xau/Usd : Triangle complete

The last couple of weeks, gold in dollars has been in a narrowing range. The triangle count looks complete now with wave E peaking above the AC trendline. Alternative counts have price still in wave C of the triangle, or in a wave Y of a complex double three.

Xau/Usd : Big move down

Last time i talked about gold against the US dollar, the main count was bearish. This count was impulsive but price turned out corrective, which means that from the alltime high there is a complex double three correction, or WXY correction. Inside this complex double three, we are ready to start wave C of Y, which looks impulsive again, meaning that a powerfull 3th wave is ready to start.

Xau/Usd : New downtrend or end of correction?

What an impressive decline we saw yesterday. The decline certainly looks impulsive. The big question is now, was this the start of a new decline or was this a wave C of an expanded flat. The break of the trendline suggests it is a new downtrend, but we will only be sure if the low of the new downtrend gets broken again in an impulsive way.

Main count :



Alternative count :

Xau/Usd : Breaking lower

The rally is clearly corrective and appears to be finishing. A break of the trendline should follow and price will be in a downtrend for a while.

Xau/Usd : One more decline?

Remember in the last update for xau/usd the title was byebye gold!, at the time gold was around 1800. Since then price has declined to below 1532! The question now becomes if this decline was a complete wave Y or if its only the first part of wave Y. Judging by the size of this decline compared to the size of wave W, chances seem greater that there will be another leg lower.

Xau/Usd : Byebye Gold!

Price went a little higher than i expected. Wave y of Y of B needed to test the 76.4% fib of w of Y of B. Look for both the trendlines to break soon. The question now becomes is the decline corrective or impulsive, this will determine the initial target for the decline.

Xau/Usd : Corrective wave ending

The exact count isn't very clear, but 1 thing is certain, the rally is corrective. There's a nice resistance zone around 1.770$ where from the low there would be 2 equal legs. This is also the 61.8 fibonacci retracement level.

Xau/Usd : 1726 resistance level

Since the last update price has continued to rally as expected. The rally is corrective and could end around 1726$. At this level we find the 50% fibonacci retracement level from the 1920$ - 1532$ decline and this is where there would be 2 equal legs from the bottom. The alternative is that price is in a triangle wave B.

Xau/Usd : Flat complete

It appears the decline had another low in it before making a bottom. From the top there is now a 3 wave move down, a 3 wave rally and a 5 wave decline. A 3-3-5 makes a flat. This completed flat is probably just a first part of a decline that will last for many weeks. Notice the big hammer that formed right at the 161.8% fib extension, helping to confirm a possible bottom.

Xau/Usd : Pause in the decline

In gold against the us dollar (Xau/Usd) we can see that from the top there are 2 almost equal legs separated by a triangle. Since the 1920$ top is a major top i believe the rally will be corrective and should not reach a new high. The rally to the top was very strong and sharp, the reaction to this once price turns like it has now should be the same but in the opposite direction. It is for this that i believe that the countertrend rally could be small.

Xau/Usd : Downtrend?

Ofcourse the big question for gold is if the major top is in. The decline certainly looks corrective, but this is normal since the rally to the top was a wave 5 expanding diagonal ( 1980 top was wave 3 top ). Resistance of the 61.8% fib from the decline is around 1830. This level has some other fibonacci extension resistance levels.

Gold : Lonely Bear At The Top

It seems that in the latest weeks all the remaining bears have been converted into bulls. I've heared predictions of gold going to 20.000 $/ounce. It is known that at major tops, the majority of the players are bullish and believe price will go much much higher, the current situation certainly fits this description. I believe that this strong, furious rally is the last wave of strength and will be followed by an equally impressive decline. The EW count remains the same as i've had for a long time but went higher than expected. This is probably because wave Y of Y of 5 in the expanding ending diagonal is an flat. And both waves Y are 150% of their waves W, this is less common but then again a big top like this one isn't very common either. Another thing i want to point out is that gold and stocks have moved pretty much together for the last 2 years. Stocks have started what seems to be a big downtrend. Will gold follow? I believe it will.

Gold : Working the shoulder

Since the latest post for Xau/Usd, price has continued to rally in an explosive way. This is higher than i expected and price is now really stretching the long term count i've been following. There is a possibility for a head and shoulder pattern forming. This is would increase the chances that a top is in place. Should price go to a new high however, i will have to admit defeat and search for a new count.

Major Top for Gold

Gold in us dollars ( xau/usd ) has been following the prediction pretty well ( click on Gold under labels ) and it now seems the moment of truth is here. I've had the 1600 target for just a little less than 1 year and price is there now. With the US Debt problems in the picture, this may be the spark that lights the fire of the gold bear. The sentiment is at extremes as it has been for a while indicating a top is near. It seems everyone is bullish gold and expects inflation will run out of control.