Saturday, March 19, 2011

Back to the triangle

I've decided to go back to the triangle count because the ew pattern looks near an end now. And this end falls together with the point where the extention of the AC and BD lines of the triangle cross. On the daily chart there is some trendline resistance ( TL connecting the 1.60 + 1.50 highs ) a little higher, around 1.42, but it would surprise me to see price go that high straigth away.

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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousMarch 19, 2011 at 9:22 PM

    hi Jeremy,

    Do you see this upcoming rally that will take out the Last Nov. high as wave4 in still the primary degree wave 1 as a huge leading contracting diagonal? After this wave4 completes in a few weeks, euro could decline on wave5 below 1.18. Do you see this as possibility?

    Thank you.

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  2. Jeremy DemunterMarch 19, 2011 at 11:38 PM

    Hi,

    I'm counting the decline from 1.60 to 1.18 as wave A and price action since would be a big wave B. An ideal target for this wave B would be 1.50, but it could be higher or lower, we'll have to see how the waves roll out.
    As for your count, i have seen a few people count it this way and to be honest i don't really like the count. A leading contracting diagonal takes the form of a 5-3-5-3-5, and i have a really hard time counting the first part as a 5 wave move. For me the initial decline of the 1.60 high is a sharp 3 wave move. Making the 1.60-1.18 a 3-3-5, flat.
    But overall, i would agree with where price is headed, which is lower to below 1.18 eventually, i just think price is headed a bit higher then in your count first.

    Friendly greetings,
    Jeremy

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