Aud/Usd : Triangle

The count presented in the previous aud/usd post, a complex double three from the top, is still valid but a triangle count becomes more probable because wave y would take much more time than wave w. A triangle always offers a choice since it can transform easily into another corrective wave, either another triangle or a complex double three, sometimes even into an ending diagonal. My choice is the bearish triangle because of the bigger timeframe count. But we have to keep an open mind for this pair and play the shorter timeframe waves since the offer more tradable opportunities.

Aud/Usd : The aussie bear is back

Aud/Usd has finished a complex double three, which can be counted as a wave X inside a bigger wave Y. This means that wave Y of Y has most probably started now. An alternative count is a big triangle, where price is now in wave C of a bearish triangle, where the 3 waves down from the +/- 1.10 high is wave A and the triangle is wave B. In this case wave C can go higher. Taking a look at the equities, i believe they're starting a huge decline aswell, which would favor the bearish aud/usd count.

Aud/Usd : Attack on the trendline

As price comes closer to the top, things are clearing up, inside wave Y there are now 2 equal legs. This top is still close to the 100% fibonacci extension of wave W. Inside wave Y of Y, the same thing has happened. The fibonacci extension resistance zone has kept up and should continue to do so. To be sure the top is in the trendline should break, leaving us with a double top pattern.

Aud/Usd : Topping?

Since the last update price went higher and even broke the trendline, this could be considered bullish. Overall price action looks very much corrective, leaving us with a lot of possible counts, including triangle counts, which are easy to spot but hard to count because of the many possibilities in which it can transform. With all the possibilities it is smart to zoom in and focus on the smaller timeframes untill the bigger picture clears up. Focus now goes to 1.0577, the 100% fib extension from the 0.9661 - 1.0378 rally. If this holds it will mean the rally from 0.9661 is a complete 3 wave structure on its own, how this 3 wave structure fits into the bigger picture remains to be seen. It could be a wave C, D, E or X. I will make a chart with all possible counts if 1.0577 holds.

Aud/Usd : Back down

It's been a while since i updated my aud/usd chart but the count is still on track since the last update. It appears price will start another leg lower. This leg is the last part of a bigger corrective wave. An alternative count would involve a triangle.

Aud/Usd : Correction over?

In the last audusd post i was looking for a small rally. This rally has grown bigger than i expected, but looks to be finished now. The alternative is that wave X isn't complete yet and another leg higher will follow.

Aud/Usd : Small rally

In the last post for aud/usd i mentioned that the countertrend rally could be small and retest the trendline. This has happened and bears are now in control. Any rally should be small.

Aud/Usd : Countertrend rally

On the last post for this pair i was looking for a retest of the first trendline. This came slightly higher than expected, but once it happened price fell hard. So hard it has broken through the second trendline aswell. This decline looks like it's ready for a small countertrend rally, perhaps retesting the second trendline.

Aud/Usd : Focus on trendlines

Price had a corrective rally from the bottom, which seems nearly complete. There's a possibility that wave Y of B has another leg higher, but the trendline that got broken and retested is offering resistance. The new trendline is now offering support, should this get broken the decline will accelerate.

Aud/Usd : 2 beautiful legs

Since 2001 Aud/Usd has formed 2 corrective legs. The 2nd leg has now touched the 100% fib extention of the first leg and price reversed sharply. This pair could be set up for a long fall down.

Aud/Usd : Corrective rally to the top

Aud/usd has been in a range for a few weeks now. But it now seems that price is ready to break out of this range to the upside. I'm counting the range as a wave x of Y. We should now be starting the final rally, y of Y, which could take price to the ideal target zone of 1.1470 to 1.1580.

Aud/Usd

Here's an update for Aud/Usd . From the weekly standpoint not much has changed from the previous post. On the daily count you can see i have 2 alternatives to main count ( which has wave x (or b) finished allready ). Both are triangles, the first is a contracting triangle, the second an expanding triangle ( got the idea from a friend on twitter : @DEAFElliott ).

Rally to the top

Just like gold, Aud/Usd seems ready to start it's last rally before it will fall harder than anything you have ever seen. 1.1460 looks like a good place for a reversal.

Aud/Usd Glory before the fall

Aud/Usd is a bit hard to count, but this expanded flat scenario looks good to me. It looks like price should go a little higher in wave C of B. This wave C could ofcourse also turn into a wave Y but the implication would remain the same. The strength of the australian dollar compared to that of the euro is remarkable, but both seem to be in B waves, which means that when this wave B is finished, the australian dollar could fall much faster than the euro.