Higher than expected

Price went higher than expected but did so in a corrective way. I still believe this is a bigger wave X we are in on the bigger timeframe. And since we started that wave X, we have had 2 corrective waves. This would give a 3-3-... structure. Now this can be followed by : -3 (complex double three), -5 (flat),or -3-3-3 (triangle).

Pre NFP range

This friday we get the US NFP numbers. This is one of the biggest market movers out there, but the days before its release, price usually stays in a small range. This is why i think we could be in a wave X triangle, which could finish and break out with the news event.

Back Down

This decline could be the start of the resumption of the downtrend. It is possible that this is a wave Y of X, but it could also be a 5 wave decline, which would be C of X.

X of X

Price has declined as expected and has reached the perfect target, 100% fib extention of wave W. I still think that we are in a bigger wave X, so this would only be the first part of the bigger correction. Look for a corrective rally as the second part of the bigger wave X.

Looking for a decline

Since the top price has come down in 3 waves. This has made me change the labels to put us in a wave Y instead of a wave C. I would like to see this latest rally, x of W of Y, end soon so we get some speed into the decline.

End of B?

Price has rallied as expected and has formed 2 equal legs from the bottom. The point where the 2nd leg equals the first comes at the exact same 76.4% fib retracement level. This should be enough resistance for a wave B top. If price goes above the latest high the chances that this is a wave B go down a lot.

End of A

The first part, wave A, of the bigger wave X seems finished. Below 1.4050 the count becomes in danger of being wrong.

Time to check the daily chart

It's time to step back to the daily chart again. Just look at all those fib extention levels, that's some nice resistance for the end of a wave. It looks like we are at the start of a wave X, to be more precise, it's wave X of (Y) of B. After this wave X finishes, the last rally to 1.50 should start. The alternative count has wave B finished allready, but the size of wave (Y) of B would be a bit small compared to the size of wave (W) of B.

Strange resistance

Price has rejected the resistance level which lays at 1.618% of wave W. This is strange because this is not a common price target for a wave Y. And counting it as an ABC ( alt ) doesn't seem to work on smaller timeframes. Anyway, price should decline for some time in the form of a wave B or X.

Back to the triangle

I've decided to go back to the triangle count because the ew pattern looks near an end now. And this end falls together with the point where the extention of the AC and BD lines of the triangle cross. On the daily chart there is some trendline resistance ( TL connecting the 1.60 + 1.50 highs ) a little higher, around 1.42, but it would surprise me to see price go that high straigth away.

Start of a wave B?

There are a lot of valid counts for recent price action. Here is the one i prefer, it's the alternative from yesterdays post. Wave A of Y, is a complex triple three on it's own, now seems finished.

The 1.40 struggle

The triangle was allready complete at the last update, but there's a small problem. Price goes above the B-D line of the triangle , that's why i thought the triangle would be bigger. If the triangle is the correct count, it looks as if the wave Y that came after the triangle has finished aswell. Look for a wave B to take price a little lower over the next hours. An alternate count is that there is no triangle, just a lot of complex price action and an unfinished wave Y.

Undecided

It seems like more range trading is required to complete a small wave X. After this wave X completes price should rally to 1.40+ levels.

A dangerous uptrend

After the big spike up late last week, price gapped up early this week. After that price decided to fill the gap in a corrective way. I'm counting that corrective wave as an expanded flat, the wave c of this expanded flat is 161.8% of wave a. It is possible that the uptrend has resumed now, but this will be messy since it's still all corrective wave action.

Aud/Usd : Corrective rally to the top

Aud/usd has been in a range for a few weeks now. But it now seems that price is ready to break out of this range to the upside. I'm counting the range as a wave x of Y. We should now be starting the final rally, y of Y, which could take price to the ideal target zone of 1.1470 to 1.1580.

The trendline holds

In the latest post i noted that the trendline + 2 equal legs from the top could offer some support. And what a reaction we got! Price exploded higher in the late trading hours of the week. If the count below is correct then this could be the resumption of the uptrend which could take price to around 1.44 - 1.46 . The alternative would be that this rally is a wave b of X. Look for 1.4034 to be broken to confirm the uptrend.

Where is the top

The decline went deeper today, but for now i'm still counting this as a wave x of Y. Should price come under the trendline, which lays at the same level where there would be 2 equals waves from the top, i will start looking more to the alternative count. The problem here is that the second leg from the bottom at 1.2858 is small in price but large in time compared to the first leg. Ideally, in a complex double three, both the W and Y wave are very simular in size in both time and price.

Corrective rally

It appears more and more that the alternative hourly count will be the correct one. In this count the decline from the 1.4035 top is a wave x of Y. It is possible that this wave x of Y is finished and we are starting y of Y now, this would explain the corrective rally we are in now. The alternative is that x of Y isn't finished yet.

Corrective or still Impulsive?

We did get a wave down, but wave 4 is really close to getting invalidated (red line). That is why i am now looking at an alternative count, which is even possible while price stays above the wave 4 limit at 1.3854. The alternative count has price in a complex double three corrective wave. This complex double three on it's whole would form a wave A of Y, which would put us in wave B of Y. This wave B can allready be finished, but could also go lower.

End of wave 3

The somewhat unusual expanding triangle seems like the correct count. This puts us in wave v of 3, which has to stay below 1.4093 for wave iii of 3 not to be the shortest. This wave v of 3 could have one more push higher in it. Wave 4 could be fast and sharp, expect support around the former wave iv low.

When the counting gets tough

After a lot of searching i've found a possible count for the latest price action. It isn't pretty but it's valid. There's a truncated wave 5 of iii and an expanding triangle wave iv. One more troubling fact is that wave iii is smaller than wave i, which means wave v has to be shorter than wave iii, or else wave iii is the shortest and the count gets invalidated.

Inside wave 3

Todays action is common behaviour for a wave 3, the 100 pip rally would actually be a 3 of iii of 3, the most powerfull wave of EW. When combining EW with fibs you can project where waves can go, now this isn't exact science, but rather a guideline, or something that happens often but not all the time. So common targets for third waves are 161.8% and 261.8% fib extentions of wave 1. We are allready at the 161.8% ext of wave 1, but internally this wave has only a clear i-ii structure with a iii in the making. The 161.8% of wave i of 3 is at 1.4070, which could mark the top for iii of 3. Inside wave iii of 3 we are either in a larger ( in time ) wave 4 of iii of 3 or we have started a larger ( in price ) wave 5 of iii of 3. I always like to take the side of a surprise rally when in a larger wave 3, this usually proves the correct choice. One last thing, we are now at a big trendline visible on larger timeframes, when this gets broken to the upside, it will give more confirmation of the direction the market wants to go in. Below 1.3880 invalidates the wave 3 of iii of 3 count.

Wave 3 or zigzag?

Wave 2 went lower as expected, but price found a bottom within the limits of wave 2. The question is if we are in a wave 3 now. We are at the 100% fib extention of wave 1, which could offer some resistance. Price action of what should be wave 3 looks to have 5 waves complete allready. This can mean 2 things, that this is a wave i of 3, or that we are dealing with a zigzag, which takes the form of a 5-3-5. If this is a zigzag, this would fit in the bigger pattern as a wave A of Y. We have to wait what the market will make of it.

15 min update

Small update where we can see that there's is no wave C, but rather a wave Y of 2. The decline is in wave Y of 2 is complex on itself. I'm expecting price to find support around 1.3780, the 100% fib extention of wave W of 2.

Rally delayed?

It looks like the alternative count posted yesterday comes into play. Wave 2 of C not finished yet, it still needs one more wave down. Should price rally hard from here, yesterdays main count ( now alternative count ), where wave 2 is allready finished, will become the main count again. This would put us in wave 3 of C and price from 1.3780 could be labelled as a combination of 1-2's.