Sunday, February 12, 2012

Eur/Usd : Topping?

A problem is the 1.31-1.32 zone, is there a triangle, a complex double three where wave Y ends above the wave W low or is this "failure wave Y" a wave B followed by an impulsive wave C? The last possibility seems the best since i don't like using failure waves and the triangle has price going through the B-D trendline, which in my experience is usually an indication that there is no EW triangle. There are 2 counts i'm following. The first count has price going higher and counts the rally from 1.2623 to 1.3233 as 1 corrective wave W. Inside this wave W could be an ABC flat, but problem here is that wave A and C are almost equal, not very common for flats, but not impossible. So perhaps this wave W is not a flat but a complex double three, which brings us to the alternative count.


Here wave Y is hard to count as corrective wave, but the relation in size makes this a possibility. Wave W and Y are almost equal and wave Z is 78.6% of W and Y.


Looking at the smaller timefrime we can see price has completed a corrective wave from the top followed by 3 waves up. These 3 waves up can mean a couple of things. Either this is a completed corrective wave and price continues below the low of 1.3154, this could also just be the first wave of a corrective wave ( A or W ) or the start of a new corrective rally which takes out the highs. We'll have to wait and see how the market plays out and how it reacts to the event in Greece.


No comments:

Post a Comment