Eur/Usd : Countertrend rally

The big trendline on the 4 hour chart was broken last week on a second try, the first time the market snapped back under it. I am now looking how high this countertrend rally will go. 1.4246 should hold unless wave X (started at 1.3145) isn't finished yet. Another possibility is that this countertrend rally has allready finished and price is ready to continue the decline. However with the big trendline break, chances are greater that this rally will go higher. This is why i believe the count with the highest probability is the one where this rally will continue higher as indicated on the chart below. 1.3851 is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 1.4246 and seems like a good place for price to go to now.