Monday, August 15, 2011

Eur/Usd : Is the bear alive?

Price rallied higher than expected. So it's time to step back a little and watch the entire decline from the 1.4939 top. I see 2 main possibilities, first a possible bearish triangle wave X where the triangle is finished and the decline should start tomorrow. Second possibility is a corrective wave X that has higher to go.


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5 comments:

  1. AnonymousAugust 15, 2011 at 8:37 PM

    Hi Jeremy!

    It is great getting your studies and ideas.

    As far as the 2 scenarios are concerned, I give more chances to a higher X wave. In the triangle scenario I do not like the structure of the second wave and especially the timing which it gets compared to the other 4 waves.

    I did not expected the price to go above 1.43 and now wonder if we shall exclude even a 1.5180 scenario.

    With best regards and wishes,

    Catalin

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jeremy DemunterAugust 16, 2011 at 1:41 PM

    Hi Catalin,

    Thanks for you comment. In a triangle, there's usually 1 wave that takes more time and is more complex than the others. We'll see what happens. For price to go to 1.50, there would have to be a wave Z of X. It's possible, and it would offer a great selling opportunity, but i have to see before i believe this.

    Friendly greetings,
    Jeremy

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousAugust 16, 2011 at 6:01 PM

    Jeremy,

    I took the point with the complexity of one of the 5 legs of a triangle.
    Thanks for your feed-back.
    It is a long time now that I want to thank you for sharing your experience and perspectives. This is a truly formative/ developing experience to me. I've learned from you more than from any other source of study. I feel gifted with your insights.
    Thanks!

    with best regards,

    Catalin

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousAugust 17, 2011 at 10:13 AM

    I wonder now if we can see an X wave (from the low of 1.3837) under the shape of a triangle where it already completed the first 3 legs?!
    It might therefore explain the boring and limited price action of the last 10 days or so.

    Just an idea.

    Best regards,

    Catalin

    ReplyDelete
  5. Jeremy DemunterAugust 17, 2011 at 11:53 AM

    Yes that's also possible. 1.4535 is in focus. In my triangle scenario this is the wave C high and wave E cannot go above this level. In your triangle scenario 1.4535 is the wave A high and wave C cannot go above.

    Jeremy

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