Aud/Usd : Triangle

The count presented in the previous aud/usd post, a complex double three from the top, is still valid but a triangle count becomes more probable because wave y would take much more time than wave w. A triangle always offers a choice since it can transform easily into another corrective wave, either another triangle or a complex double three, sometimes even into an ending diagonal. My choice is the bearish triangle because of the bigger timeframe count. But we have to keep an open mind for this pair and play the shorter timeframe waves since the offer more tradable opportunities.

SP500 : Bearish warning

The big thing that happened in the SP500 is the break of the ending diagonal triangle trendline. Since that break price has rallied back to retest this trendline. Price is now showing signs of reversal (daily shooting star through the 61.8% fib retracement). Even a smaller trendline is breaking, with 2 possibilities, either the rally is a wave 2 and price cannot go above 1435.61 or this is a wave B which can allow higher prices. No matter what count is correct a powerfull wave lower is coming, which, if the longer term count is correct, will only be the start of a much bigger decline.

Eur/Usd : Rally over?

A first possibilty for the countertrend rally to end is around this level. The correction can still transform into a bigger corrective wave.

SP500 : Watch the trendline

In the last post i showed a possible ending diagonal, where a small thrust above the upper trendline was needed after which price had to reverse. This is exactly what happened and i now believe chances are really high that SP500 has put in a top that will not be retested for a very long time.

On the 4 hour chart, counting is a little less certain. One thing is clear, price action from the top is corrective. This has made me change the top at 1474 to an X wave top, which puts price in the beginning of wave Y. We will have to wait and let price decide if price action from 1435 is corrective or impulsive. For the impulsive count, price cannot go above the red line at 1407. 

The corrective count allows for a bigger corrective rally.

Eur/Usd : Corrective wave down

From the 1.3171 top i count the decline as a corrective wave, a complex double three. A target for the end of this corrective wave comes around 1.2770, with 2 nice 100% fibonacci extention levels around this level. After this, price action will be important for the bearish count. The rally has to be corrective and should stay under 1.3171 ( unless the rally is an expanded wave B ). It's also possible that countertrend rallies will get small both in time and price as the downtrend will accelerate.

Xau/Usd : Top of the range

In the last post about gold vs the us dollar i had 2 possibilities, both were invalidated. I am actually happy about this, because this gives this new count a lot more power. I believe a great opportunity to short with little risk and huge potentiel gains is here now, it's never 100% sure but i like the good odds here. 2 equal legs from the bottom and price at top of the channel to form the end of a corrective pattern. It is possible that this corrective wave transforms into a bigger correction but because price has allready taken so much time to form wave B i believe the chance that this corrective wave isn't finished is very small.

Eur/Usd : Downtrend still alive

In my last post about eur/usd i was looking for a top, unfortunately this didn't happen, price rallied higher. The important thing is that i still count this rally as corrective with a good chance of being finished. This makes me take a look at the longterm count. Let me first present you with a chart posted on this blog may 10th 2011. Here you can see i was looking for a downtrend to begin. A lot of people had another view due to price breaking the trendline. But price declined and wave Y started.















The question now becomes how to count the waves inside this wave Y. I see 2 possibilities as shown on the chart below. It's all about where wave (W) of Y finished. In the first scenario, circled in red, wave (W) of Y finished at 1.2623 and wave (X) of Y is a bit small, but this doesn't make the count impossible, no rules are broken. A nice fibonacci target zone comes around 1.1716 - 1.1773. In the second scenario, circled in green, wave (X) of Y is sharp and is the biggest rally since the 1.50 top. Also price broke a pretty strong trendline and just like when price was around 1.50 a lot of people are bullish now. The difference here is that this time around, price is still in a big downtrend, instead of at the end of an uptrend, making this top a counterrally top. A nice fibonacci target zone for the second scenario is at 1.0795 - 1.0957.















Let me finish by saying that there are a lot of valid signals for a bottom, but the previous low at 1.1875 ( wave W low ) will act like a magnet to attract price. Another thing i'd like to mention is that there are different possibilities to count eur/usd, my alternative count has price in wave E of an expanded triangle. But before i look at this alternative count, price needs to break the cycle of lower lows and lower highs, with the latest lower high at 1.3485.

SP500 : Rally to top

I've had some requests for an EW count for the SP500 so here it is. Price to me looks to be corrective with a wave C as a contracting ending diagonal. A final rally should put the top in place and what will follow will probably not be very pretty as price should eventually break the 666 low, now that's evil...

Xau/Usd : Topping

There are a couple of valid ways to count the rally from the may 2012 low. I propose one where the top is in allready, other counts allow for another high. 1 thing is for sure, the rally is corrective. On the bigger view, i have 2 counts which are actually very simular since they both expect a decline and break of the lows. The first count, which has been my main count for a long time, has price in a wave y of Y of a complex double three combination. The second count came from price being in a range between 1550 and 1800 since september 2011 and has this range as a bearish triangle wave B.

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price did not break the trendline as i suggested in the previous post but bounced higher forming another leg in a corrective pattern. I do keep the idea of a triangle around 1.23 but turned it into a bullish one. Also, the leg following the triangle is 200% of the wave before the triangle. It is possible that inside this wave Y another leg higher comes now, but 1.2640 should hold as resistance zone since it's the 100% fib extention of wave W.