Xau/Usd : Top of the range

In the last post about gold vs the us dollar i had 2 possibilities, both were invalidated. I am actually happy about this, because this gives this new count a lot more power. I believe a great opportunity to short with little risk and huge potentiel gains is here now, it's never 100% sure but i like the good odds here. 2 equal legs from the bottom and price at top of the channel to form the end of a corrective pattern. It is possible that this corrective wave transforms into a bigger correction but because price has allready taken so much time to form wave B i believe the chance that this corrective wave isn't finished is very small.

Eur/Usd : Downtrend still alive

In my last post about eur/usd i was looking for a top, unfortunately this didn't happen, price rallied higher. The important thing is that i still count this rally as corrective with a good chance of being finished. This makes me take a look at the longterm count. Let me first present you with a chart posted on this blog may 10th 2011. Here you can see i was looking for a downtrend to begin. A lot of people had another view due to price breaking the trendline. But price declined and wave Y started.















The question now becomes how to count the waves inside this wave Y. I see 2 possibilities as shown on the chart below. It's all about where wave (W) of Y finished. In the first scenario, circled in red, wave (W) of Y finished at 1.2623 and wave (X) of Y is a bit small, but this doesn't make the count impossible, no rules are broken. A nice fibonacci target zone comes around 1.1716 - 1.1773. In the second scenario, circled in green, wave (X) of Y is sharp and is the biggest rally since the 1.50 top. Also price broke a pretty strong trendline and just like when price was around 1.50 a lot of people are bullish now. The difference here is that this time around, price is still in a big downtrend, instead of at the end of an uptrend, making this top a counterrally top. A nice fibonacci target zone for the second scenario is at 1.0795 - 1.0957.















Let me finish by saying that there are a lot of valid signals for a bottom, but the previous low at 1.1875 ( wave W low ) will act like a magnet to attract price. Another thing i'd like to mention is that there are different possibilities to count eur/usd, my alternative count has price in wave E of an expanded triangle. But before i look at this alternative count, price needs to break the cycle of lower lows and lower highs, with the latest lower high at 1.3485.

SP500 : Rally to top

I've had some requests for an EW count for the SP500 so here it is. Price to me looks to be corrective with a wave C as a contracting ending diagonal. A final rally should put the top in place and what will follow will probably not be very pretty as price should eventually break the 666 low, now that's evil...

Xau/Usd : Topping

There are a couple of valid ways to count the rally from the may 2012 low. I propose one where the top is in allready, other counts allow for another high. 1 thing is for sure, the rally is corrective. On the bigger view, i have 2 counts which are actually very simular since they both expect a decline and break of the lows. The first count, which has been my main count for a long time, has price in a wave y of Y of a complex double three combination. The second count came from price being in a range between 1550 and 1800 since september 2011 and has this range as a bearish triangle wave B.

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price did not break the trendline as i suggested in the previous post but bounced higher forming another leg in a corrective pattern. I do keep the idea of a triangle around 1.23 but turned it into a bullish one. Also, the leg following the triangle is 200% of the wave before the triangle. It is possible that inside this wave Y another leg higher comes now, but 1.2640 should hold as resistance zone since it's the 100% fib extention of wave W.

Eur/Usd : Breaking the trendline

In the last update i mentioned that the rally from the low was corrective. Since then, there was another leg higher into a new high. From this high, the decline is corrective aswell and forming a small triangle which lays upon a supportive trendline. Wave E could be complete or have another leg higher, but as long as 1.2381 does not get broken, the triangle count remains valid and price will eventually break the trendline. Should price go above 1.2381, the corrective pattern could transform into another corrective pattern, like a complex double three.

Eur/Usd : Bullish trap?

The last update (15min chart) showed a clear flat corrective wave. This wave was followed by a short range of overlapping waves, which to me can only be counted as a complex corrective wave, anything else is because you want this to fit into a bigger picture. In this case, if you watch the price action from the low, you could be fooled to believe there are 5 waves up. I prefer to count the short range of overlapping waves as a complex corrective wave which forms wave Y in a bigger complex corrective wave. Another reason why i think this is valid is because the size of this wave y of Y is 50% of wave w of Y. The most common relation between waves W and Y is 100% or 76.4%, less common is 50%, 150% or 200%. With flat corrections the relationship is most commonly 161.8%, less common 61.8% or 261.8%. In the bigger picture, we can see that the corrective price action from the 1.2389 top, could simply be the start of a wave Y, which is also corrective. Don't forget that when you're in a bigger picture corrective mode, that a change in trend does not have to come in 5 waves. This can however make finding new trends harder or riskier. In this case a break of the 1.2389 level would invalidate this count and we will have to adjust to a bigger corrective wave.

Eur/Usd : 15min flat

A short term count for eur/usd, classic flat pattern, where wave C = 161.8% of A.

Xau/Usd : Triangle complete

The last couple of weeks, gold in dollars has been in a narrowing range. The triangle count looks complete now with wave E peaking above the AC trendline. Alternative counts have price still in wave C of the triangle, or in a wave Y of a complex double three.

Aud/Usd : The aussie bear is back

Aud/Usd has finished a complex double three, which can be counted as a wave X inside a bigger wave Y. This means that wave Y of Y has most probably started now. An alternative count is a big triangle, where price is now in wave C of a bearish triangle, where the 3 waves down from the +/- 1.10 high is wave A and the triangle is wave B. In this case wave C can go higher. Taking a look at the equities, i believe they're starting a huge decline aswell, which would favor the bearish aud/usd count.