Friday, April 30, 2010

Is there finally a bottom?

Wave 5 went just a little lower, but not enough to change the count. If the low is in we are now correcting higher in 3 waves. We are only in the early stage of this correction, so expect price to go higher over the next couple of weeks.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Time to be a contrerian?

There's a possibility that wave 5 has ended in the form of an ending diagonal. Another possibility is that small wave 3 is still forming, but this cannot be longer than small wave 1, so it will have to end soon.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Time to play the waiting game

Wave B went pretty low, which makes me think about the ending diagonal again. The problem is that price after the wave 4 high can be counted as 3 waves or 5 waves. Because this isn't very clear i'm looking to a bigger timeframe and keep both possibilities as an option. That's the reason i have us in either wave C going up or looking for one more low and an ending diagonal (wave 5 will have to be smaller then wave 3). Above 1.3690 would eliminate the ending diagonal count, below 1.32 wave B wouldn't be finished or an ending diagonal is forming if price went high enough to make a small wave 4 (of wave 5). If price just drops like a rock to new lows i'll have to review my count.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Monday, April 19, 2010

Still correcting

Eur/Usd is finishing (or has allready finished) 3 waves since topping around 1.3690. I'm counting this as a wave A of a bigger 3 wave pattern. The bigger 3 waves would be wave B (circle). There is still the possibility of an ending diagonal forming, but this would require wave B to finised much lower, it will then be counted as wave 3 of the ending diagonal.

Sunday, April 18, 2010

Time for a retest

USD/JPY was in a complex decline which seems finished. The break of the falling trendline has been broken and i'm now looking for a retest before price goes higher. It's possible to count a diagonal, but i prefer the complex correction for now.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Triangle?

I'm looking for a wave 4 triangle to unfold, wave C must end above the low of wave A. If wave C goes below, it will be the end of wave C of 4 and wave 5 will start.

Monday, April 12, 2010

Trap or new direction?

We didn't go below the key level as indicated in the previous post. This means that wave 2 of the ending diagonal wasn't finished yet. Another possibility is that we are not in an ending diagonal but the bottom from the 1.5140 - 1.3266 decline is in allready. This would mean we are correcting higher and instead of looking for a wave 3, we would be looking for a wave B to begin soon.

Friday, April 9, 2010

Diagonal confirmation?

Price needs to break the black line around 1.3265 and end wave iii after doing so. 1.3170 ( 1st abc = 2nd abc ) looks like a good price level for wave iii to end and wave iv to start. Wave iv has to overlap with wave i since we are in an ending diagonal.