Xau/Usd : Topping

There are a couple of valid ways to count the rally from the may 2012 low. I propose one where the top is in allready, other counts allow for another high. 1 thing is for sure, the rally is corrective. On the bigger view, i have 2 counts which are actually very simular since they both expect a decline and break of the lows. The first count, which has been my main count for a long time, has price in a wave y of Y of a complex double three combination. The second count came from price being in a range between 1550 and 1800 since september 2011 and has this range as a bearish triangle wave B.

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price did not break the trendline as i suggested in the previous post but bounced higher forming another leg in a corrective pattern. I do keep the idea of a triangle around 1.23 but turned it into a bullish one. Also, the leg following the triangle is 200% of the wave before the triangle. It is possible that inside this wave Y another leg higher comes now, but 1.2640 should hold as resistance zone since it's the 100% fib extention of wave W.

Eur/Usd : Breaking the trendline

In the last update i mentioned that the rally from the low was corrective. Since then, there was another leg higher into a new high. From this high, the decline is corrective aswell and forming a small triangle which lays upon a supportive trendline. Wave E could be complete or have another leg higher, but as long as 1.2381 does not get broken, the triangle count remains valid and price will eventually break the trendline. Should price go above 1.2381, the corrective pattern could transform into another corrective pattern, like a complex double three.

Eur/Usd : Bullish trap?

The last update (15min chart) showed a clear flat corrective wave. This wave was followed by a short range of overlapping waves, which to me can only be counted as a complex corrective wave, anything else is because you want this to fit into a bigger picture. In this case, if you watch the price action from the low, you could be fooled to believe there are 5 waves up. I prefer to count the short range of overlapping waves as a complex corrective wave which forms wave Y in a bigger complex corrective wave. Another reason why i think this is valid is because the size of this wave y of Y is 50% of wave w of Y. The most common relation between waves W and Y is 100% or 76.4%, less common is 50%, 150% or 200%. With flat corrections the relationship is most commonly 161.8%, less common 61.8% or 261.8%. In the bigger picture, we can see that the corrective price action from the 1.2389 top, could simply be the start of a wave Y, which is also corrective. Don't forget that when you're in a bigger picture corrective mode, that a change in trend does not have to come in 5 waves. This can however make finding new trends harder or riskier. In this case a break of the 1.2389 level would invalidate this count and we will have to adjust to a bigger corrective wave.

Eur/Usd : 15min flat

A short term count for eur/usd, classic flat pattern, where wave C = 161.8% of A.

Xau/Usd : Triangle complete

The last couple of weeks, gold in dollars has been in a narrowing range. The triangle count looks complete now with wave E peaking above the AC trendline. Alternative counts have price still in wave C of the triangle, or in a wave Y of a complex double three.

Aud/Usd : The aussie bear is back

Aud/Usd has finished a complex double three, which can be counted as a wave X inside a bigger wave Y. This means that wave Y of Y has most probably started now. An alternative count is a big triangle, where price is now in wave C of a bearish triangle, where the 3 waves down from the +/- 1.10 high is wave A and the triangle is wave B. In this case wave C can go higher. Taking a look at the equities, i believe they're starting a huge decline aswell, which would favor the bearish aud/usd count.

Eur/Usd : Still in a downtrend

Since the last update there was a lot of sideways action, followed by a big move down last week. This sideways action suggets a triangle, which has ended and the downtrend has now continued. A slight adjustment from the previous count was needed, this is because there is an expanded triangle, which was a little less probable but now seems to be the correct count, even if the expansion is large.

Xau/Usd : Big move down

Last time i talked about gold against the US dollar, the main count was bearish. This count was impulsive but price turned out corrective, which means that from the alltime high there is a complex double three correction, or WXY correction. Inside this complex double three, we are ready to start wave C of Y, which looks impulsive again, meaning that a powerfull 3th wave is ready to start.

Eur/Usd : Target is 1.1875

If we look at the price action, it is clear that there are a lot of complex corrective waves on different levels. This should continue until the 1.1875 low have been broken. Should price go above 1.2824 the count is wrong.