Cable Guy

Here are 2 ways to look at Gbp/Usd. Bullish case would be a wave c ( or y ) and the bearish case ( in blue ) would be a very big wave 3. i of 1 ( in blue ) is a bit hard to count as impulsive or diagonal so that's why i keep it as a alternative. Note the nice channeling and fibonacci levels that seem to work pretty well here.

Close but no cigar

Wave 4 has almost overlapped with wave 1, but the count is still valid. However, i'm starting to look for alternatives. The first alternative count has wave (i) and possibly wave (ii) finished, where wave (iii) of 3 will start anytime soon. A less probable count is a finished A-B-C.

One more push lower

Wave iv did take more time like i suspected, wave v should take price lower to the 1.2482 - 1.2520 zone where there's former low support (July 5th and July 12th). After this there should be some kind of a relief rally to possibly offer another big selling opportunity.

On Track

Price went lower as expected and reversed sharply in the form of wave iv. There's a little problem with this wave iv because it looks a lot like wave ii, usually one of the two is sharp while the other takes more time. So i do not exclude wave iv taking more time. Pricewise, wave iv wont go much higher because it's near the previous wave 4 high and it's at the 38.2% FIB retracement of wave iii. As to where this fits into the bigger picture, I think we are finishing wave i of 3. I'll post this possibility in one of my next posts.

Stuck in the middle right now

The alternate count from last post becomes nearly impossible. So i am now focusing on bearish counts. This one looks like the most probable. Green wave 5 could extend, but that just pure speculation based on the fact that we're in a bigger wave 3 and we should expect surprises to the downside. If it doesn't, we could get another 3 wave correction, where price has to stay below blue ii's high. We have to wait and see for the correct count, but the main direction is pretty certain, down.

Here We Go

The low was broken and it is very possible that wave 3 has started. The only alternative is an expanded flat wave B. For this to be true 1.2791 has to be broken (wave 1 low). For now i'm starting to sell rallies.

Strange but possible

I'm sticking with this count even if it looks a bit strange. There are a lot of possibilities to count this, wait for the waves to clear up for more certainty. There's a nice head and shoulders pattern, which should lead price higher into a wave 2 top.

Gbp/Usd

Here's an update to Gbp/Usd. I'm keeping a close eye on it to determine where Eur/Usd is in its wave count. After completing wave 4 there are 5 waves down possibly finishing wave 5. This would mean we're in a correction mode higher, where wave A is close to (or has allready) completing. Again I'm not buying this, i don't want to be short the US Dollar anywhere. There are a couple of alternative counts like these 5 waves since the wave 4 top being wave 1 of 5. Another alternative is wave 3 is wave i, wave 4 is ii and the 5 waves down are another wave 1. Watch 1.5701, if broken the alteratives will be invalidated. But price could turn south anytime in a violant way.

A little more patience

The triangle count got invalidated, wave C went above wave A's high. There's still a possibility for a complex correction wave 4 (possibly not complete). Otherwise the alternative count will come into play, where there are allready 5 waves complete and we're now in wave B of the correction. We'll have to wait and see for more clarity.

Gbp/Usd

Like Eur/Usd, this pair looks to be in the same situation, but there's less space to finish wave 4.