Still valid

Looks like the wave 5 down was wave c of B of ii. We are pushing the limits of where price can go before the count is invalidated. But we are still under the red line, so i'm still expecting a serious drop in price.

The allmighty 3

Not much new to post about. I remain with my scenario that we are in a iii of 3 ( of 5 ). It even seems we're about to start a wave 3 of iii of 3 ( of 5 ). These are the opportunities i like to trade on. Risk is well defined, not too big and reward potentiel is big, several times the risk even.

Who's the boss?

We just opened for the week and allready the wave 1 of 5 low has been broken. This means wave 3 is not yet complete, so wave iii of 3 down is about to start. If 1.3569 gets broken this count becomes invalid and i will look for more upside. We cannot look past the european decission to bail out every EU country, which could make the euro rally against the us dollar. The market remains boss however and we can only follow even if it decides to go lower first.

eu deal but lower prices first?

Either wave 3 has ended or this is only wave i of 3. If wave 3 has ended wave 5 must be smaller then wave 3 because wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. If it is wave i of 3, look for price to go much lower, starting with wave iii of 3.

As promised here is my count on the wave 5. Looks like we're going down a bit further. Wave iv of 3 has allready completed 3 waves, price after these 3 waves however seems to be unfolding in 3 waves aswell. For this reason I see a possibility of wave iv ending higher.

How low can you go

Now that eur/usd has gone below 1.3434 I am forced to change my count. When i'm in such a situation, i try to adjust my count as little as possible (moved end of wave 3 down to 1 lower low). I am now counting us in a wave 5. To know how low this will take us I will zoom into this wave 5 in my next post.

Pick a card, any card...

Price declined as expected, however its seems more like it did so in 5 waves. It can also be counted as a complex correction, which could even be the end of wave B, but i prefer not to do so for now. These 5 waves down can be part of a zigzag, where this low would be A of B, or as wave 1 of 5. If it is 1 of 5, this would mean there is an error in my count from the 1.5150 top and we will go lower to possibly test 1.30. I will stay with my original count (bottom is in) untill proven wrong. Look for price to rally, but be carefull of a possible wave 3 down if it reverses.

Topping?

Since breaking the triangle price has made 3 waves where A=C. This is possibly the end of wave Y or this is simply wave A of Y. Price should be going lower now, after this we will have to wait and see.

Price broke out of the triangle, but didn't do so in 5 waves as expected. That is why I am now counting it as a wave A. In the bigger picture, the triangle should now be counted as wave X instead of wave B because price action after the triangle is not impulsive, so no wave C is forming. This would mean we are now at or near the end of wave B of Y. If price falls much further, I will be forced to change my count in a more drastic way.

... GO !

The much anticipated wave 3 of 3 has started. Here's a look of how it could be developping.