Last update for the week

It is still possible this is wave 2 of C, but for now i'll be counting it as bigger wave B. This wave B could be finished allready but compared to the time taken by wave A this is very small, i prefer to see wave B take more time.

NFP today

Looks like the euro did make a nice 3 wave drop yesterday, testing the 61.8% retracement. Since it is in 3 waves, the 2 possibilities that seem most likely to me are :

Wave 2 of C just finished and we are heading higher fast in wave 3.
Wave C was the end of a bigger 3 wave pattern, now labelled A and the 3 wave drop was a of B

Price action since the wave B bottom has been hard to count, however as time passes the waves become clearer. Wave C looks like it's finished, there are however a lot of possibilities as to where this fits into the bigger picture. It could be wave 2 of 5, which would mean new lows. It could be the end of a bigger wave A. It could also be wave 1 of C. Or be part of a more complex combination. The short term trend however is down. Expect lower prices today.

Riding the waves

Adjusting the count as we progress higher.

The drop that never came

Now that 1.3665 has been broken, i'm forced to change my count. The best possibility is that we are now correcting higher in a wave C.

Ready to drop?

Looks like the triangle scenario is playing out. Now looking for wave iii of 3 of 5 to start. Above 1.3665 this count becomes invalid.

Breakout levels

If the previous count is to hold up, we should break out to the upside. If wave 4 isn't finished, it will take the form of a triangle and wave 5 will go to lower levels. Wave structures are not very clear, both wave 5 and wave i are hard to count ( 3 or 5 waves? ). So at this point it would be best to use a breakout strategy.

Eur/Usd 1 Hour

It is possible to count 5 waves down from the top. I labelled wave 5 as finished but it's possible that it has just started where wave i of 5 and ii of 5 have just finished. Note how MacD shows divergence as it reaches a wave 5 on every degree.

A new start

It's been a while since I posted on my blog. Last time I posted I was looking for a wave B top. It came a lot later and higher than I expected but it came nonetheless. I will now focus on finding a count from the top.

Eur/Usd

There's a good chance the eur/usd pair is topping. In the bigger picture ( daily ) a triangle seems to be unfolding.



Looking closer to wave C (of the wave B triangle) we can see that the triple three combination, WXYXZ, is probably complete. Inside wave Z, wave Y is at 100% FIB extension, which is a casual target for double three combinations. Yes, a double three inside a triple three, just to keep things simple.