Eur/Usd : Triangle wave X?

There's a possibility for a triangle count for wave (X) as shown in the chart below. Should price break the wave a of the triangle low, wave (X) will finish just a bit lower. Yet another possibility is that wave (X) is already finished and this price action is part of wave (Y). 3 possibilities all have in common that price is near a bottom. On a side note, the chart has a different look because i have made it at tradingview.com, you can find me there under the name jdemunter.

Eur/Usd : Here come the bulls

In the last update i was looking for a decline, price went a little higher first but declined anyway. This decline was in 3 waves which look finished now. I am now once again looking for a rally. I would also like to point out the weekly candle is a hammer which lays on the 61.8% fibonacci retracement from the entire rally from the february low. I labelled the rally as a wave W and the decline as a wave X because price action from the wave X low is corrective, the rally will be wave Y in a complex double 3. As for alternative counts, wave X could extend further or become a triangle.

Eur/Usd : When will the uptrend resume

The alternative count from the last update proved to be the correct count (wave W). What followed could be considered a triangle but wave A of this triangle wave X is very large compared to the rest of the waves inside this triangle. I think the important thing to watch is the resistance around 1.10 which was broken last week. If the count presented is correct, expect a retest of this former resistance now support zone after which price will rise again and looking at the speed of the decline from 1.40 i suspect the same speed in the other direction. Watch for surprises to the upside and small corrective waves to the downside.

Eur/Usd : Triangle wave B?

I can see a possible triangle for wave B. The alternative has wave A finishing one leg higher as a complex double three and will see wave B finish below 1.0712.

Eur/Usd : Start of wave B

After yesterdays big rally there's a good chance the euro has bottomed and started a longterm corrective rally.

A new trend does not always start in 5 waves, otherwise corrective waves would always have to start with a double zigzag (5-3-5). In this case a flat (3-3-5) could be at the start of a big wave B.

Xau/Usd : Wave B to retest resistance

It's been a while since i posted, but the last post was about gold against the us dollar and things turned out as expected, perhaps just a little deeper end of wave (A), but still against valid fib targets, 150% for wave C (more common is 100%) of a complex double three (3-3-3), and wave C was a flat wave (3-3-5) with wave c of C being 161.8% of wave a of C.

Since the wave (A) low at 1180, price has gone up in what appears to be a corrective way, which is what I am looking for since price is in a wave (B). The decline from 1433 is possibly allready finished because price is at a 61.8% fibonacci retracement and wave c is 76.4% of wave a, but could very well go lower one more time to test the 76.4% fib retracement and the wave c is 100% of wave a level.

Xau/Usd : Big support broken

Price followed the count very well. The triangle had smaller waves D and E than i expected, but nonetheless price went lower, and how ! The big support level around 1550, which held for the last 2 years or so, was broken causing a very big and quick sell off. Elliott wave analysis tells us that this could very well be a wave 3 inside a wave C, alternatives are possible, but the direction is clear. 1400 remains the target, after that price could slow down and rebound to retest the big support turned resistance around 1550 in the form of wave B. Yes, this means i believe gold is in a long term bear market and could go as low as 1000 in 2014/2015.

Xau/Usd : Looking for 1400

Price has come down nicely as expected, but has found some support around 1.567, a fibonacci extention level. This was probably the end of a first corrective wave down from the 1795 top. The next wave could turn out to be a triangle wave B. If this is correct the downtrend will remain strong for the next couple of weeks/months untill price reaches 1400.

SP500 : End of the rally

The previous count i had for the sp500 is no longer valid, so here is the new count. There are still other counts possible but looking at the MacD we can see a clear bearish divergence. In this count wave (C) is 61.8% of wave (A), a classic flat pattern with wave C as an ending diagonal. The alternative is that the max price level for wave 5 of the ending diagonal at 1554.05 gets broken, turning the ending diagonal into a double three combination. In other words, wave 1 becomes wave W, wave 3 and 5 becomes wave Y.

Xau/Usd : Still in a downtrend

In the previous xau/usd ( or Gold ) post, price was at the high of the channel. Since then price has come down nicely, but has done so in 3 waves which is corrective. This means that price is most likely in a wave Y, the third leg in a double three combination.  The 3 waves down from the wave X top are finished and price had a small rally which is also corrective. It is possible that this countertrend rally is allready finished, since we are in a strong downtrend, but it could transform into a bigger corrective pattern ( watch the alternative on the chart ).

Aud/Usd : Triangle

The count presented in the previous aud/usd post, a complex double three from the top, is still valid but a triangle count becomes more probable because wave y would take much more time than wave w. A triangle always offers a choice since it can transform easily into another corrective wave, either another triangle or a complex double three, sometimes even into an ending diagonal. My choice is the bearish triangle because of the bigger timeframe count. But we have to keep an open mind for this pair and play the shorter timeframe waves since the offer more tradable opportunities.

SP500 : Bearish warning

The big thing that happened in the SP500 is the break of the ending diagonal triangle trendline. Since that break price has rallied back to retest this trendline. Price is now showing signs of reversal (daily shooting star through the 61.8% fib retracement). Even a smaller trendline is breaking, with 2 possibilities, either the rally is a wave 2 and price cannot go above 1435.61 or this is a wave B which can allow higher prices. No matter what count is correct a powerfull wave lower is coming, which, if the longer term count is correct, will only be the start of a much bigger decline.

Eur/Usd : Rally over?

A first possibilty for the countertrend rally to end is around this level. The correction can still transform into a bigger corrective wave.

SP500 : Watch the trendline

In the last post i showed a possible ending diagonal, where a small thrust above the upper trendline was needed after which price had to reverse. This is exactly what happened and i now believe chances are really high that SP500 has put in a top that will not be retested for a very long time.

On the 4 hour chart, counting is a little less certain. One thing is clear, price action from the top is corrective. This has made me change the top at 1474 to an X wave top, which puts price in the beginning of wave Y. We will have to wait and let price decide if price action from 1435 is corrective or impulsive. For the impulsive count, price cannot go above the red line at 1407. 

The corrective count allows for a bigger corrective rally.

Eur/Usd : Corrective wave down

From the 1.3171 top i count the decline as a corrective wave, a complex double three. A target for the end of this corrective wave comes around 1.2770, with 2 nice 100% fibonacci extention levels around this level. After this, price action will be important for the bearish count. The rally has to be corrective and should stay under 1.3171 ( unless the rally is an expanded wave B ). It's also possible that countertrend rallies will get small both in time and price as the downtrend will accelerate.

Xau/Usd : Top of the range

In the last post about gold vs the us dollar i had 2 possibilities, both were invalidated. I am actually happy about this, because this gives this new count a lot more power. I believe a great opportunity to short with little risk and huge potentiel gains is here now, it's never 100% sure but i like the good odds here. 2 equal legs from the bottom and price at top of the channel to form the end of a corrective pattern. It is possible that this corrective wave transforms into a bigger correction but because price has allready taken so much time to form wave B i believe the chance that this corrective wave isn't finished is very small.

Eur/Usd : Downtrend still alive

In my last post about eur/usd i was looking for a top, unfortunately this didn't happen, price rallied higher. The important thing is that i still count this rally as corrective with a good chance of being finished. This makes me take a look at the longterm count. Let me first present you with a chart posted on this blog may 10th 2011. Here you can see i was looking for a downtrend to begin. A lot of people had another view due to price breaking the trendline. But price declined and wave Y started.















The question now becomes how to count the waves inside this wave Y. I see 2 possibilities as shown on the chart below. It's all about where wave (W) of Y finished. In the first scenario, circled in red, wave (W) of Y finished at 1.2623 and wave (X) of Y is a bit small, but this doesn't make the count impossible, no rules are broken. A nice fibonacci target zone comes around 1.1716 - 1.1773. In the second scenario, circled in green, wave (X) of Y is sharp and is the biggest rally since the 1.50 top. Also price broke a pretty strong trendline and just like when price was around 1.50 a lot of people are bullish now. The difference here is that this time around, price is still in a big downtrend, instead of at the end of an uptrend, making this top a counterrally top. A nice fibonacci target zone for the second scenario is at 1.0795 - 1.0957.















Let me finish by saying that there are a lot of valid signals for a bottom, but the previous low at 1.1875 ( wave W low ) will act like a magnet to attract price. Another thing i'd like to mention is that there are different possibilities to count eur/usd, my alternative count has price in wave E of an expanded triangle. But before i look at this alternative count, price needs to break the cycle of lower lows and lower highs, with the latest lower high at 1.3485.

SP500 : Rally to top

I've had some requests for an EW count for the SP500 so here it is. Price to me looks to be corrective with a wave C as a contracting ending diagonal. A final rally should put the top in place and what will follow will probably not be very pretty as price should eventually break the 666 low, now that's evil...

Xau/Usd : Topping

There are a couple of valid ways to count the rally from the may 2012 low. I propose one where the top is in allready, other counts allow for another high. 1 thing is for sure, the rally is corrective. On the bigger view, i have 2 counts which are actually very simular since they both expect a decline and break of the lows. The first count, which has been my main count for a long time, has price in a wave y of Y of a complex double three combination. The second count came from price being in a range between 1550 and 1800 since september 2011 and has this range as a bearish triangle wave B.

Eur/Usd : Topping

Price did not break the trendline as i suggested in the previous post but bounced higher forming another leg in a corrective pattern. I do keep the idea of a triangle around 1.23 but turned it into a bullish one. Also, the leg following the triangle is 200% of the wave before the triangle. It is possible that inside this wave Y another leg higher comes now, but 1.2640 should hold as resistance zone since it's the 100% fib extention of wave W.