The allmighty 3

Not much new to post about. I remain with my scenario that we are in a iii of 3 ( of 5 ). It even seems we're about to start a wave 3 of iii of 3 ( of 5 ). These are the opportunities i like to trade on. Risk is well defined, not too big and reward potentiel is big, several times the risk even.

Who's the boss?

We just opened for the week and allready the wave 1 of 5 low has been broken. This means wave 3 is not yet complete, so wave iii of 3 down is about to start. If 1.3569 gets broken this count becomes invalid and i will look for more upside. We cannot look past the european decission to bail out every EU country, which could make the euro rally against the us dollar. The market remains boss however and we can only follow even if it decides to go lower first.

eu deal but lower prices first?

Either wave 3 has ended or this is only wave i of 3. If wave 3 has ended wave 5 must be smaller then wave 3 because wave 3 can never be the shortest wave. If it is wave i of 3, look for price to go much lower, starting with wave iii of 3.

As promised here is my count on the wave 5. Looks like we're going down a bit further. Wave iv of 3 has allready completed 3 waves, price after these 3 waves however seems to be unfolding in 3 waves aswell. For this reason I see a possibility of wave iv ending higher.

How low can you go

Now that eur/usd has gone below 1.3434 I am forced to change my count. When i'm in such a situation, i try to adjust my count as little as possible (moved end of wave 3 down to 1 lower low). I am now counting us in a wave 5. To know how low this will take us I will zoom into this wave 5 in my next post.

Pick a card, any card...

Price declined as expected, however its seems more like it did so in 5 waves. It can also be counted as a complex correction, which could even be the end of wave B, but i prefer not to do so for now. These 5 waves down can be part of a zigzag, where this low would be A of B, or as wave 1 of 5. If it is 1 of 5, this would mean there is an error in my count from the 1.5150 top and we will go lower to possibly test 1.30. I will stay with my original count (bottom is in) untill proven wrong. Look for price to rally, but be carefull of a possible wave 3 down if it reverses.

Topping?

Since breaking the triangle price has made 3 waves where A=C. This is possibly the end of wave Y or this is simply wave A of Y. Price should be going lower now, after this we will have to wait and see.

Price broke out of the triangle, but didn't do so in 5 waves as expected. That is why I am now counting it as a wave A. In the bigger picture, the triangle should now be counted as wave X instead of wave B because price action after the triangle is not impulsive, so no wave C is forming. This would mean we are now at or near the end of wave B of Y. If price falls much further, I will be forced to change my count in a more drastic way.

... GO !

The much anticipated wave 3 of 3 has started. Here's a look of how it could be developping.

Ready... Set...

Looks like wave E is finished, turns out it's a bit shorter then I thought. Price action since the end of wave E looks impulsive, setting up for the allmighty wave 3 of 3. Price needs to stay above 1.3624.

Moment of truth

We are close to the end of the wave B triangle now. The last wave, wave E, should finish later tonight and will present a nice bullish opportunity.

wave B(oring)

Price failed to make a new low in a wave c. Since we are in wave B, I think the best way to count it would be a triangle.

So far price has followed my projected course. Price should now go lower again to probably test the 76.4% fib.

Last update for the week

It is still possible this is wave 2 of C, but for now i'll be counting it as bigger wave B. This wave B could be finished allready but compared to the time taken by wave A this is very small, i prefer to see wave B take more time.

NFP today

Looks like the euro did make a nice 3 wave drop yesterday, testing the 61.8% retracement. Since it is in 3 waves, the 2 possibilities that seem most likely to me are :

Wave 2 of C just finished and we are heading higher fast in wave 3.
Wave C was the end of a bigger 3 wave pattern, now labelled A and the 3 wave drop was a of B

Price action since the wave B bottom has been hard to count, however as time passes the waves become clearer. Wave C looks like it's finished, there are however a lot of possibilities as to where this fits into the bigger picture. It could be wave 2 of 5, which would mean new lows. It could be the end of a bigger wave A. It could also be wave 1 of C. Or be part of a more complex combination. The short term trend however is down. Expect lower prices today.

Riding the waves

Adjusting the count as we progress higher.

The drop that never came

Now that 1.3665 has been broken, i'm forced to change my count. The best possibility is that we are now correcting higher in a wave C.

Ready to drop?

Looks like the triangle scenario is playing out. Now looking for wave iii of 3 of 5 to start. Above 1.3665 this count becomes invalid.