Triangle wave X ?

Here's a possibility for a bigger triangle wave (X). Price cannot go above the red line ( = wave A high ).

Triangle possibility

There's a possibility that price is in a short term triangle. When this triangle is done, price should start declining again. Another possibility is that wave X is an unfinished complex double three. There are even more possibilities but they all have the same direction, which is down.

Countertrend Rally X

Price went lower as expected, we are now in wave (Y), but this could possibly be a lower degree, meaning that we are now only in Y of (W). I'm expecting this latest rally, wave X, not to go very high or last very long.

Here comes the Eurobear

While the previous count is still possible, the size of the rally becomes questionable. That is why I am now counting the decline from 1.4422 to 1.4047 as a complete small (WXY) complex double three, which would be Y of (W). Since the wave (X) top price has declined in what seems a corrective way. This means that either wave (X) isn't done yet, or wave (Y) has started. Looking at the fundamentals, with Greece possibly (or close to) defaulting, growing protests in Spain, another volcano erupting in Iceland, the debt ceiling being reached in the US and the whole IMF situation, this should be another intresting week.

Small Rallies, Big Declines

The trend is down and should remain so until 1.3768 ( or 1.3899 ). This is a target area for wave Y of Y. When price reaches this level the decline should stall a little, but be carefull because any countertrend rally could be very small.

Lower and Lower

Price is continuing lower as expected. A small wave B ( could also be an X wave ) seems complete, ending a small countertrend rally. I'm expecting price to go below the recent low. Above 1.4422 would mean a bigger countertrend rally is taking place.

New trend down, corrective?

The decline from the top seems to count best as a corrective wave. This can mean 2 things, either the top was a wave X or the top isn't in yet. But after the big decline from the top there are a couple of things that make me believe the top is in. There's a weekly bearish engulfing candlestick pattern after last weeks price action. Such a powerfull decline after a long and slow uptrend usually means a change in sentiment. Also, a lot of indicators were showing divergence. The elliott wave structure shows a possibility for a top, but like always in EW, there's also a possibility for another move higher. For now i have us in a bear market that will last for a couple of weeks/months, eventually taking price below 1.18. If i am correct, price action could look a lot like how it did in 2008, small counterrallies and big, fast declines.

New trend or not just yet?

This big decline today is possibly the start of a new big downtrend. I was looking for a top slightly higher and wonder if this level is still reachable. For that to be true the decline has to be another X wave. With tomorrows NFP, price could still snap back up for a last rally, but don't forget even if that is the case, the top will follow that last rally. Another possibilty is that the NFP event will completly sink price and eurusd will have 2 bad days in a row.

Top by the end of the week?

The expanded triangle count seems like it was correct. We even got a 3 wave move up after the triangle ended. This 3 wave move was probably wave A of the last rally to the top. Looking at where we are in the pattern, i think that the top could come as early as tommorow or the day after that.

Topping

Recent sideways action is corrective with a possible expanding triangle as a count. A corrective rally should start soon and should finally take price over 1.50 after which it will soon reverse and remain in a downtrend for a long time.